According to Maxime Bossis, it was an error that would never have been made these days. “No one told me he always dived on the same side. It was another world,” said the former France defender in an interview in July. “Today a coach or a player would have come to tell me: ‘Watch out, he always dives to his right!”
It is more than 40 years since Bossis entered the history books as the first player whose miss in a World Cup penalty shootout led – via an opponent’s successful spot-kick – to his country’s elimination. Introduced by Fifa for the 1982 tournament in Spain to replace the policy of replaying a drawn game, the first took place in Seville and saw – you guessed it – West Germany emerge victorious against France.
“The coach gathered us around and asked: ‘Who wants to take one?’” remembered Alain Giresse, who succeeded with the first penalty in a World Cup shootout. “Players were already taking off their boots and saying: ‘Not me!’”
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The goalkeeper Harald Schumacher, having escaped a red card for his vicious body slam on the substitute Patrick Battiston during normal time, denied Bossis with the 11th penalty of the shootout after Uli Stielike had become the first player to miss with the sixth – West Germany’s third - and France’s Didier Six had also had one saved with the seventh (France’s fourth). As Stuart Pearce will testify, Six set off quite a trend.
In 32 World Cup shootouts up to the end of the last 16 in Qatar, teams have been far more likely to miss their fourth penalty than any other, with 22 instances so far (36%) including England’s Stuart Pearce in 1990. The dreaded fifth penalty, unsuccessful for Chris Waddle in that shootout, and for David Batty in 1998, fares only slightly better with a 35% miss rate.
But if there is a specific penalty to avoid then it appears to be the fourth penalty for the team going second – as Brazil’s Marquinhos found out to his cost against Croatia on Friday. Before that match the eighth total penalty in a shootout had been missed 11 out of 29 times (38%) – more than any other of the regulation 10. According to statistics from Gracenote also running to the end of the last 16, only the 11th and 12th penalties – at 50% – are more likely to be missed, although only one shootout has gone that far since the first in 1982: when the failure of Romania’s Miodrag Belodedici to score sent Sweden to the semi-finals in 1994.
The overall success rate from shootouts is 69% (294 penalties in total with 203 scored and 91 missed), but that figure goes above 70% for the first three rounds (penalties one to six) and drops drastically after as the pressure builds.
England’s win over Colombia on penalties in 2018 finally broke their duck in World Cup shootouts at the fourth attempt. Their opponents on Saturday, France, have progressed twice from World Cup quarter-finals in shootouts: in 1986 against Brazil and in 1998 against Italy on their way to becoming champions.
But just as Gareth Southgate’s side lost the Euro 2020 final to Italy on penalties, more recent memories are not so good for Didier Deschamps after Kylian Mbappé was the culprit in the last-16 defeat against Switzerland at the same tournament. And there was 2006 when David Trezeguet’s miss saw Italy triumph in the World Cup final.
Should it come down to penalties on Saturday, winning the toss could be vital given recent trends. Morocco’s victory over Spain in the last 16 in Qatar and Croatia’s over Brazil made them the only teams in the past nine World Cup shootouts to win after taking the first penalty, although overall about half have done so.
There could also be a few surprises in Southgate’s list of penalty takers. Of squad members who have taken five or more in all competitions, including in shootouts, since the start of the 2013-14 season, Harry Kane leads the way with 60 out of 69 successful penalties (87%). Callum Wilson is next with an 85% success rate and the defenders Harry Maguire and Eric Dier make the top five with 83% and 80% respectively.
Raheem Sterling (50%), Kieran Trippier (60%) and Mason Mount (70%) have the lowest success rates but Marcus Rashford (82%) and Bukayo Saka (75% from four penalties) – who were racially abused after missing against Italy last year – could potentially expect to be called upon again.
But perhaps Jordan Pickford is Southgate’s secret weapon. The goalkeeper may not have saved a penalty in regular play for more than two years but he kept out two in the Euro 2020 final and scored the decisive spot-kick in the Nations League third-place playoff against Switzerland in June 2019. “If called upon I’ll take one,” he said before the victory over Senegal. Just make sure it’s not number eight.
