MESA, Ariz. — The Cubs have two more weeks of spring training to make Opening Day roster decisions. And there are still plenty of questions they need to answer.
Who will be the fifth starter to open the year? How will manager David Ross dole out playing time at third base? Could right fielder Seiya Suzuki’s injury open up a spot for a non-roster invitee? Which middle relievers have done enough to break camp with the team?
“As a [former] player I don’t ever take for granted how important it is mentally to make the team,” Ross said. “That’s a great feeling to break with the team. But my managerial hat, and my looking back, and experience-wise, it’s just about having the best year you possibly can as a player and helping the team win. And there’s a lot of different avenues to that.”
Earlier in the spring, Ross outlined his general approach to roster decisions.
“You learn performance in spring training doesn’t carry a whole lot of weight,” he said. “Track record does matter. You try to look at setting the team up for long term success as well, and the player up for long term success. Obviously, roster construction, and [minor-league] options, and all those things matter in how the end result plays out.”
Of course, plenty can happen over the course of two weeks to change the Cubs’ calculations. Ross said Tuesday that he and president of baseball operation Jed Hoyer haven’t had serious roster conversations yet.
“You throw around some ideas from time to time: ‘This guy looks good. This guy looks good,’ stuff like that,” Ross said, “but nothing like real roster crunch stuff yet.”
Here’s one way the Opening Day roster could shake out:
Rotation (5)
• RHP Marcus Stroman
• LHP Justin Steele
• RHP Jameson Taillon
• LHP Drew Smyly
• RHP Hayden Wesneski
The fifth starter battle is still in flux. And Javier Assad made a strong case for himself Sunday in Team Mexico’s 11-5 blowout win over the United States. Facing some of the best hitters the U.S. has to offer, Assad allowed just one hit, a single by Mike Trout, in three innings. He touched 97 mph, after going through an offseason velocity program. Add that performance to an already strong spring.
Wesneski holds onto the edge because of his attention-grabbing introduction to the majors at the end of last season, posting a 2.18 ERA in six games and showing his potential in an immaculate inning against the Pirates. He also has yet to give up an earned run this spring in three starts.
Adrian Sampson has the longer track record, something Ross is sure to weigh, but he’s allowed a lot of hard contact this spring, giving up eight home runs in 8⅓ innings.
Barring an injury to the Cubs’ multi-inning relief options, the two who don’t make the Opening Day roster will likely go to Triple-A to stay stretched out as the next men up.
Bullpen (8)
• RHP Keegan Thompson
• RHP Adbert Alzolay
• RHP Brad Boxberger
• RHP Michael Fulmer
• LHP Brandon Hughes
• RHP Rowan Wick
• RHP Julian Merryweather
• RHP Michael Rucker
The Cubs’ multi-inning relievers, Thompson and Alzolay, and back-end veterans, Boxberger and Fulmer, appear to be set. The biggest question for the bullpen is which middle relievers will make the team.
Not listed above, right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. — a non-roster invitee this spring after being outrighted, electing free agency and then signing a minor-league deal with the Cubs this offseason — has been impressive this spring, holding opponents scoreless and to mostly soft contact. He may have played himself onto the Opening Day roster in place of a player with minor-league options, like Rucker or Wick, even though Rucker has a spotless ERA through four spring appearances.
The Cubs have a lefty matchup problem, and Leiter, though right-handed, has fared well against left-handed hitters. The Cubs also have lefty non-roster invitees Ryan Borucki and Roenis Elías in camp — although Elías, who is off to a dominant start in Team Cuba’s rotation, has reverse splits.
Catchers (2)
• Yan Gomes
• Tucker Barnhart
From the time the Cubs signed Barnhart, in late December, it was clear he and Gomes would be splitting time behind the plate. But this spring has proven the catching depth they have in camp. Luis Torrens, a non-roster invitee, entered play Tuesday with two home runs, tied for the team lead.
Infielders (8)
• SS Dansby Swanson
• 2B Nico Hoerner
• 1B Eric Hosmer
• 1B/DH Trey Mancini
• 3B Patrick Wisdom
• 3B Nick Madrigal
• UTL Edwin Ríos
• UTL Zach McKinstry
What the Cubs value in their infielders will be a big piece in the bench battle. Most starting positions are set. Wisdom and Madrigal, with their opposite hitting profiles, are the favorites to claim the most playing time at third base. But Wisdom and Mancini are also expected to spend some time in the outfield, especially while Suzuki is out with a moderate strain of his left oblique.
The Cubs have a number of versatile infielders who can fill out the bench. Ríos adds left-handed power to the lineup. McKinstry, who is out of minor-league options, has been slow to find a rhythm at the plate but has stood out in the field for his strong arm.
As much of a spark as Christopher Morel provided in his debut season last year, the Cubs will also be weighing his long-term development. Morel might benefit from a stint in Triple-A, where he’d both have the chance to hone his defensive talents in multiple positions and get more consistent at-bats.
Outfielders (3)
• LF Ian Happ
• CF Cody Bellinger
• RF Mike Tauchman
Suzuki is expected to start the season on the injured list, shaking up the outfield picture. Tauchman, a non-roster invitee, is hitting .318 in 11 spring-training games and could be part of the Cubs solution to filling Suzuki’s spot.
Outfielder Nelson Velázquez is in a similar situation to Morel: the team has to weigh his development and the at-bats available with a mostly set lineup. He was named to Team Puerto Rico’s stacked roster, in what he called a dream come true. But that time away has also meant Ross hasn’t had as many chances to evaluate Velázquez this spring.
