Development has consistently figured as a major consideration for Indians while deciding whom to vote in Lok Sabha elections. In 2014, two in 10 voters held the lack of development in the country to be the most important factor influencing their choice about whom to support.
In its bid to dislodge the Congress-led UPA government from power, the BJP tried to tap into this sense of frustration by making development the central plank of its campaign. In that election, which saw the latter returning to power after a decade, 30% of voters felt that Narendra Modi would be better for the country’s development. In the 2019 election where the BJP-led NDA won a second term, development once again emerged as a key issue for 14% of voters.
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Given the centrality of the issue, the question then is whether the incumbent government managed to satisfy the voters’ expectations about development. As the BJP-led NDA government completes two terms in office and is eyeing a third, the answer to this question can form the basis for evaluating the ruling dispensation’s developmental pitch. The pre-poll study conducted by CSDS-Lokniti in April 2024 provides a window to this issue.
Following Mr. Modi’s reelection in 2019, he introduced a slogan, ‘sabka sath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas’ (together with all, development for all, the trust of all). However, the question remains: do voters believe that this development has truly reached everyone?
Close to two in 10 voters are of the view that in the last five years, no development has taken place in the country. This sentiment has persisted among a similar proportion of voters since 2004, our pre-poll survey has found that 32% of voters think that, in the last five years, development has taken place only for the rich. This has been one of the major issues on which the Opposition has tried to counter the government’s record of development. It is interesting to recall that when the BJP was in power under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, an even larger percentage of voters expressed the sentiment that the development initiatives primarily benefitted the wealthy. Back then, 43% of voters felt this way (Table 1).
Data also suggests that although a slightly lower proportion of people compared to 2019 feel that development has occurred equally for all, this figure still stands at 48%. This sentiment of overall development has seen a significant rise since 2004, when only three in ten (27%) felt that development had happened for all (Table 1).
When examining these figures through the lens of class, it is notable that voters across different classes feel that development has taken place for all, but this sentiment is stronger among the upper and middle classes (55% and 50%, respectively). Four in ten of those belonging to the poor classes feel that development has happened for all (Table 2). However, when it comes to development only for the rich, one does not observe any significant stratified differences across classes, although the poor and lower classes were slightly more likely to hold this opinion.
In conclusion, the data clearly indicates that in spite of one-third of voters believing that development only for the rich has taken place, the BJP can bank on the nearly half of the electorate that believes that development has been inclusive. Given that voters from all segments of society in roughly equal proportions believe that development under the Modi government has been inclusive, it remains to be seen how these views affect the vote choices that will be made in the course of this election.
(Vibha Attri and Abhinav Pankaj Borbora are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS)
