A prediction market that allowed users to bet on the arrest of the killer of the UnitedHealthcare CEO has successfully forecasted the timing of his capture.
On Dec. 4, Brian Thompson, the 50-year-old CEO of UnitedHealthcare, was shot and killed outside New York Hilton Midtown in Manhattan. The shooter, who fled on an e-bike into Central Park, evaded capture, prompting a massive search by the NYPD.
As the killer remained at large, public interest became widespread as people wondered when the suspect would be arrested.
The manhunt for UnitedHealthcare CEO Bryan Thompson's killer is on its 6th day.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 9, 2024
Odds they arrest him this week just hit 82%. pic.twitter.com/HWWGcPsSzl
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, allowed users to bet on when or if the killer would be arrested.
Initially, the odds were low, with just a 65% chance of an arrest by the end of the week. However, by day six of the manhunt, the odds shifted to 82%, reflecting a growing belief that the arrest was imminent.
"The manhunt for UnitedHealthcare CEO Bryan Thompson's killer is on its 6th day. Odds they arrest him this week just hit 82%," Polymarket wrote on X Monday morning.
Polymarket's forecast turned out to be prescient. As the NYPD closed in on their suspect, the prediction market saw a significant surge in bets.
Investigators have since taken Luigi Mangione into custody after a McDonald's worker reportedly recognized him in Pennsylvania. He has not yet been formally charged in connection to the shooting.
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