Giorgia Meloni and Matteo Salvini, the far-right protagonists of a coalition on course to win Italy’s general election this month, posed together in a warm embrace by the sea in Sicily last week in a show of unity.
Meloni, the Brothers of Italy chief who could become prime minister, and who in the past has likened the pair’s relationship to that of Romeo and Juliet, said: “The photo is the best response to the inventions by the left of alleged divisions.”
Just days later, cracks between her and Salvini, the leader of the League, were on display at a business conference in Cernobbio, off the shores of Lake Como, where they disagreed on one of the most important themes of the moment – sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Although both Brothers of Italy and the League have condemned the war, Salvini, who once heaped praise on Vladimir Putin, even signing a cooperation pact with the Russian president’s United Russia party in 2017, said the sanctions were not working and were instead “bringing Europe and Italy to their knees”.
Lasciamo alla sinistra divisioni, rabbia e polemiche. Uniti si vince 🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/pAHLtJU1Tw
— Matteo Salvini (@matteosalvinimi) August 29, 2022
Meloni, meanwhile, argues that the sanctions are working, citing a significant slowdown in Russia’s GDP growth prospects, and since the start of the war she has been resolute in her support for sending arms to Ukraine while reassuring the international community that she is pro-Europe and pro-Atlanticist.
Her stance is a marked change from her criticisms of the sanctions against the Kremlin as a result of its annexation of Crimea in 2014, which she described as having “massacred” Italian businesses. It is a somewhat surprising shift from the leader of a party whose supporters are mostly against the latest raft of penalties. And according to a poll this week, just over half of Italians oppose the measures, owing to the strong impact they are having on the cost of living.
But Meloni has the wind in her sails – Brothers of Italy, a party with neofascist roots, is leading in opinion polls – and her approach appears to be twofold: trying to woo voters while reassuring international observers.
“Slowly but surely she has understood that she could make it, and end up as prime minister,” said Sofia Ventura, a politics professor at the University of Bologna. “So she has taken a bet. She doesn’t want to frighten public opinion, and is aware that leading the country means having to show she’s 100% Atlanticist and European.”
Salvini, on the other hand, is endeavouring to revive support for the League, which has slumped to about 12% in polls, down from almost 40% in August 2019 when he collapsed his coalition government with the populist Five Star Movement in a failed attempt to force snap elections that could have made him prime minister.
“Salvini is seeing support crumbling from his hands and so it’s clear that he is playing a different game,” Ventura said.
The two parties are part of a coalition forecast to claim a comfortable victory on 25 September. The third member is Forza Italia, the party of the three-time former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, who has also nurtured close ties with Putin’s Russia.
As a coalition, they have pledged to maintain support for Ukraine and stand firm alongside the EU and Nato. Michele Geraci, a former undersecretary at the ministry of economic development who has close ties to the League, believes this will be maintained once in power, albeit with a possible change in approach towards the sanctions.
“There really isn’t much difference between Meloni and Salvini – they have condemned the war in Ukraine and are both nationalist with a focus on the wellbeing of Italy,” he said. “They also both want sanctions that will bring an end to the war – this is the goal. There’s a lot of confusion over whether or not the sanctions are working. Salvini is slowly understanding that they aren’t, while Meloni hasn’t maybe understood that yet. After the election campaign, when they have time to properly assess the impact, maybe they will decide to either leave [the sanctions] or try to modify them.”
Before the war, Italy had long been friendly towards Russia, maintaining close economic and cultural links supported by factions within parties from across the political spectrum, some of whom continue to defend Putin.
The Five Star Movement, which set the wheels in motion for the collapse of Mario Draghi’s government in July, has condemned the war but is vehemently against sending arms to Ukraine and increased military spending. TV talkshows have hosted pro-Putin commentators.
“Since the end of the cold war, Italy did not perceive Russia as a major threat,” said Carolina De Stefano, a professor of Russian history and politics at Luiss University in Rome. She noted that the League and the Five Star Movement had promised to reduce Crimea-related sanctions when they formed a government in 2018, but in the end no changes were made.
“There has been an evolution in Italy-Russia relations and since February the Italian position has changed and in a really stable way,” she said. “There’ll be no turning back, and I see no possibility of Italy taking an opposite direction to the European one beyond the slogans.”
