An electorate held by the Nationals for all but two years since federation has given the party a shake-up by supporting a teal independent who has made the seat too close to call.
Cowper, on the NSW Mid North Coast, was the only seat still in doubt for the Nationals almost 48 hours after polls closed in the federal election.
A 6.54 per cent swing against incumbent member Pat Conaghan has left him about 6,000 votes in front of independent Caz Heise, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.
Ms Heise has attributed the narrow margin to an electorate fed up with the status quo.
Ms Heise campaigned on similar issues to her metropolitan counterparts – a more ambitious climate policy, a national integrity commission and better gender representation.
She said those who had voted for her weren't satisfied with the National's climate policy.
"Taking real action on climate change, according to science not according to politics, is what the people of Cowper want," Ms Heise said.
Mr Conaghan acknowledged that some of his Coalition counterparts had hurt their fortunes on Saturday.
"I've taken that up with my party and I'll certainly take it up with Matt Canavan."
Mr Conaghan said he supported the Coalition's net-zero emissions target by 2050.
"I've been very public in supporting action on climate change," Mr Conaghan said.
Will the minor parties have the final say?
One Nation candidate Faye Aspiotis has picked up about 8 per cent of the primary vote.
It is unclear who will pick up more of the vote share on preference flows.
Mr Conaghan said his vote had been eaten into by both ends of the political spectrum.
"You had the multi-billion-dollar machine with the Independents [and] on the right the anger towards the government for what I say are predominantly state issues such as [vaccine] mandates," Mr Conaghan said.
Ms Heise said a significant portion of minor party votes appeared to be flowing to her, in the form of a protest vote against the majors.
She said while there wasn't much in common between teal and One Nation voters, they were united in apathy towards the traditional two-party system.
"We stand against complacency that this government's had — the stronghold that they've had on this region for so long and the fact that we do not feel that we have been listened to," she said.
'A massive message'
Mr Conaghan said there were lessons for him and his party regardless of the result.
"In hindsight, I could've done things better – there's no doubt about that," Mr Conaghan said.
"There's a change of views and there's a change of demographic — I'll look back and re-evaluate and perhaps I'll do things differently."
Even if unsuccessful in unseating the Nationals, Ms Heise said the campaign had already achieved one its key objectives.
