Libyan National Army (LNA) leader Khalifa Haftar’s 14-month offensive to capture the Libyan capital of Tripoli and unseat the U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) failed in June, and his forces lost territory that had taken him over six years to seize. His defeat began when Russian mercenaries backing the LNA were seen abandoning the front lines, before Haftar’s entire rear line stretching from Tripoli to the city of Sirte suddenly collapsed. Faced with outright military defeat, wavering international backers, and a political process in which he is no longer in the driver’s seat, Haftar’s future—and the future of Libya as a unified state—is now in serious doubt.
As Haftar began losing ground, his political behavior looked increasingly desperate, and his focus turned to his own political survival and relevance. In a matter of weeks, Haftar staged a failed military coup over his political allies in eastern Libya and promised to launch the largest air campaign in Libyan history against the GNA, before abruptly backtracking and announcing his desire for a new, inclusive peace process and a return to political talks.
