Labour won and won big. Although the opinion polls had long predicted Sir Keir Starmer would become prime minister, the scale of his victory and its potential impact on the country will take time to sink in.
With the party expected to win just over 410 MPs and have an overall majority of some 176, this was a historic win — and a catastrophic loss for the Conservatives.
The Tories have been reduced to around 120 seats, far fewer than in 1906 (156) or 1997 (165), their previous lowest totals. Studies will be written about how the Conservatives, the most durable and successful election-winning machine in the world, have been reduced to this position.
The main reasons are that they lost the party’s reputation for economic competence and, in parallel, abandoned the political centre ground. It’s that simple. In London, the Tories hold nine parliamentary seats, compared to the 21 seats they won in 2019. Last night’s total is lower even than 1997, when they held just 11. It is the party’s worst general election result in the capital.
Labour hold 59 out of 75 seats, the mayoralty and 21 out of 32 boroughs. The King now lives in a Labour seat, having seen his local council, Westminster, won by Labour in the 2022 borough elections. Neither of these things had ever happened before.
The Conservatives lost their two remaining MPs in inner London, Chelsea & Fulham, and Kensington (now a new constituency) — leaving the local council of Kensington & Chelsea as the party’s final redoubt in inner London. Even apparently safe seats in outer London such as Uxbridge & South Ruislip were lost. Sir Iain Duncan Smith held Chingford & Woodford Green because a former Labour candidate stood against the official one and split the vote.
The Liberal Democrats won six seats, meaning they had a good night. Jeremy Corbyn held on as an independent in Islington North, doubtless to Keir Starmer’s chagrin. Britain has a London MP as its prime minister, as it did when Boris Johnson won in 2019. Keir Starmer is the first prime minister with a central London constituency since the 1840s.
Labour’s national vote share was about 35 per cent, lower than Corbyn’s 40 per cent in 2017. The Conservatives’ vote share of 24 per cent is their lowest in a general election, far worse than in 1997 or 1906. The overall Labour-plus-Conservative vote was under 60 per cent, the lowest since 1945 when they became the contemporary “two party” system.
The Lib Dems won 71 seats nationally, Reform four and the Greens four. Turnout was down, at about 60 per cent. These results were remarkably good for Labour, though they are partly due to the first-past-the-post voting system which massively favours the biggest party over smaller ones. It is a system which previously served the Tories well. Now it has wrecked them. Can they recover by 2029? The coming weeks will tell us much.
