Beleaguered British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is urging voters and his party to stick with him, following the recent election results that saw two English districts elect opposition-party lawmakers in seats that have long been held by Sunak's Conservative Party. The outcome of these elections has deepened concerns among Conservatives that they may be heading for a significant defeat in the upcoming national election, which is less than a year away. Currently, the Tories consistently trail between 10 and 20 points behind the left-of-center Labour Party in opinion polls.
In the recent by-elections, Labour candidate Damien Egan secured victory in the House of Commons seat of Kingswood in southwest England, while Labour's Gen Kitchen won in Wellingborough in the country's center. These seats were previously held by the Conservatives with significant margins during the last national election in 2019, but the support for the Conservatives drastically declined in Thursday's special elections. Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, came in third place, adding to the pressure faced by the Conservatives from both the right and the left.
Nevertheless, Sunak is urging his party and the public to stick with the Conservative Party's plan, as he believes it is starting to deliver the change that the country wants and needs. Addressing reporters, Sunak expressed his belief that the country is pointing in the right direction, despite the challenges faced in recent years.
Labour leader Keir Starmer viewed the election results as evidence that people are seeking change. The elections were held to replace two lawmakers who left their positions suddenly, one in protest and the other amidst allegations of misconduct. Chris Skidmore resigned from the Kingswood seat last month to protest Sunak's lack of commitment to green energy, while Peter Bone, a long-serving legislator from Wellingborough, was ousted due to accusations of bullying and sexual misconduct.
The recent by-election results mark the tenth loss for the Conservatives since the last general election, the highest number for any administration since the 1960s. Under Sunak's leadership since October 2022, the Conservatives have suffered six defeats and achieved only one victory. Sunak took office after Liz Truss's short-lived tenure, during which she proposed unfunded tax cuts that had a negative impact on the economy.
While Sunak has provided some stability to the party, he has failed to rejuvenate its popularity. The Conservatives have been in power nationally since 2010 and experienced a range of significant events, including austerity measures following the global banking crisis, the divisive Brexit decision, the COVID-19 pandemic, and a European war that led to a cost-of-living crisis. Opinion polls show that support for the Conservatives is waning across various demographics, with affluent southern voters disillusioned by Brexit and working-class northern voters who had switched from Labour in the 2019 election being left dissatisfied as promises of prosperity in neglected areas remain largely unfulfilled.
The economic growth in Britain has almost come to a standstill, with the country falling into a recession at the end of 2023 for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. This limits the government's ability to entice voters with pre-election tax cuts.
Damien Egan, the victorious Labour candidate in Kingswood, addressed the disillusionment felt by many voters, stating that 14 years of Conservative government had drained hope from the country, creating a sentiment that hard work does not translate into progress. He emphasized that this situation does not have to be accepted and called for change.
Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden expressed disappointment with the election results. However, the party argued that the low turnout, with less than 40% of eligible voters casting their ballots, suggests a lack of enthusiasm for Labour among British electors. Nevertheless, John Curtice, a polling expert from the University of Strathclyde, stated that the results confirm the significant electoral challenges faced by the Conservatives. He believes that the party will have to overcome historical records if they want to recover from their current position.
The Conservative losses may provide fuel for Sunak's rivals within the party, who are already positioning themselves for a potential leadership contest following an election defeat. Some within the party even advocate for Sunak's removal before the election, replaced by a right-wing candidate with low-tax and low-immigration policies that could win back voters from Reform UK. However, others caution against installing another unelected leader, as it could backfire on the party.
Sunak's consolation lies in the fact that Labour is also experiencing difficulties. Last week, the party diluted a key green investment pledge, citing the weakened state of the economy left by the Conservatives. Additionally, Starmer is grappling with allegations of antisemitism within the Labour Party. Recently, the party disowned its candidate for another special election after controversial remarks he made during a local party meeting, suggesting that Israel allowed an attack by Hamas as a pretext to invade Gaza.
Critics argue that this controversy indicates that Labour has not successfully eradicated the antisemitism that plagued the party during the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, a vocal supporter of the Palestinians and a critic of Israel. The impact of this controversy on Labour's standing in opinion polls remains unclear.
