Seth Jones said Sunday the Blackhawks’ shifts have been too long this season. Looking at the numbers, Connor Bedard has the longest average shift length on the Hawks. Those two facts alone make the topic worth examining.
Bedard’s average shift length of exactly 60 seconds is actually third-longest among all NHL forwards, trailing only Minnesota’s Kirill Kaprizov (68 seconds) and Mats Zuccarello (62 seconds).
The Hawks also place three other forwards in the top 25 league-wide: Taylor Hall (who ranks 14th at 56 seconds), Philipp Kurashev (who ranks 19th at 55 seconds) and Ryan Donato (who ranks 24th at 55 seconds).
Ask Bedard about it, though, and he’ll make an astute counterpoint.
“Some of it is power play,” he said Tuesday. “Not saying I don’t need to shorten them up, but that plays a factor.”
Indeed, many of Bedard’s shifts on power plays have been nearly two minutes long, since the first unit typically receives more than half the time before he sometimes lingers out with the second unit.
Those long power-play shifts jack up his average, just as they do for many other stars around the league. It’s telling that 22 of the aforementioned top 25 forwards in shift length are receiving more than three minutes of power-play ice time per game.
So are Bedard’s shifts really too long, or is that just statistical noise? Moreover, even if Bedard’s shifts are long, is that really a bad thing for the Hawks?
He is, after all, arguably their best player. During five-on-five play, the Hawks are generating 0.48 scoring chances per minute when he’s on the ice versus 0.39 per minute when he’s not. His presence alone ignites their otherwise stagnant offense.
Plus, he’s young, healthy and full of energy; he never seems tired or out-of-breath after each game, despite his hefty workload. Why not keep him out there as much as possible?
Ask coach Luke Richardson about it, and he’ll admit it “would be probably ideal” to trim a few seconds off Bedard’s shifts.
If the entire shift is spent in the offensive zone, pressing for a goal, it won’t bother Richardson if it lasts longer than a minute. But if Bedard spends 40 seconds or so in the offensive zone, then commits a turnover and gets stuck in the defensive zone for another 40 seconds or so, it becomes slightly more problematic.
“It’s [about] making the right decision at the end of that shift so he doesn’t turn the puck over high in our offensive zone and then has to backcheck and play [in the] ‘D’-zone,” Richardson added. “Who wants to play in the ‘D’-zone all game?
“Especially in the second period, [that situation] ends up being a 1:45 shift, and then that really distorts your ice times but it also tires you out. It makes our team look scrambly.”
But even if Bedard’s shift lengths are a minor issue, they’re just that: minor. Overall, the 18-year-old phenom has played quite well throughout his first month in the NHL.
Visually, he looks good. Analytically, he looks good. Statistically, he looks good. His five goals through 11 games not only put him on pace for 37 this season but also exceed Patrick Kane’s goal output — while matching Jonathan Toews’ goal output — through the first 11 games of his career.
After entering the season with minus-120 odds to win the Calder Trophy on FanDuel (making him the clear favorite), Bedard’s odds stood at minus-145 as of Tuesday afternoon, meaning the likelihood has only increased.
And considering the success of this Hawks season will — and should — be measured by the development of the team’s rookies far more than by the team’s record in the standings, that’s a comforting trend.
