Following player movement in fantasy drafts is an essential part of team development. A rising player can be a trap or a difference-maker opportunity. At the same time, the public can be down on some players due to camp news or usage in the preseason. These situations can create some buying situations if your opinion is higher than their fading ADP.
I pulled the ADP data from National Fantasy Football Championship, RTSports, and Underdog fantasy to show the different draft flows in slightly different scoring systems.
NFFC – Entry Fee $350 (Overall Prize $250,000)
• Six-point passing touchdowns and 0.5 per passing yard
• One point per reception
• 0.1 per rushing and passing yard
• Six-point rushing and receiving touchdowns
• 20 Round redraft – QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, Flex, and TE
RTSports – Entry Fee $300 (Overall Prize $500,000)
• Four-point passing touchdowns and 0.5 per passing yard
• One point per reception
• 0.1 per rushing and passing yard
• Six-point rushing and receiving touchdowns
• 20 Round redraft – QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 Flex, and TE
Underdog – Entry Fee $25 (Overall Prize $2,000,000)
• Four-point passing touchdowns and 0.4 per passing yard
• Half-point per reception
• 0.1 per rushing and passing yard
• Six-point rushing and receiving touchdowns
• Best ball – QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, Flex, and TE
I'll only highlight the first eight rounds of their ADPs with two redrafts and one best ball format.
In the NFFC, drafters tend to favor wide receivers over the first few rounds, while running backs draw more attention at RTSports. The half-point scoring at Underdog and best ball format increase the value of running backs, but many drafters gravitate toward adding strength in wide receiver depth at the expense of their other three starting positions.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
The first-round draft flow at the NFFC and Underdog look similar through the first seven picks. Austin Ekeler( 3.6) and Najee Harris (5.5) draw the most attention at RTSports, while Ja'Marr Chase (9.2), Stefon Diggs (14.1), and Davante Adams (15.6) appear to be values. Conversely, the NFFC crowd fights for Saquon Barkley (10.8) compared to the other two formats (15.7 and 14.5). Justin Jefferson has moved in front of Cooper Kupp in all formats.
The best values at RTSports in the second grouping are CeeDee Lamb (20.5) and Michael Pittman (32.8). Travis Kelce is more sought after at Underdog due to position scarcity and game style.
Travis Etienne (26.2) ranks higher at the NFFC as he won't make it too far in the third round in many drafts. I drafted Etienne in the third round in every draft at Underdog. I thought there was a drop-off at running back behind him, and the wide receiver pool had similar value over the next two rounds. There is no respect for Jaylen Waddle (54.2) at RTSports, while Nick Chubb (17.6) ranks higher at their site.
A drafter can see why their ADPs look different by looking at the draft flow at the NFFC and RTSports. If the old-school crowd continues to fight for running backs early, they know the wide receiver pool supports their style in the third to the fifth round. At the NFFC, the top wide receiver pool gets selected early, and more teams try to build with a star running back and a cheat at RB2. Their differing philosophy creates better running back chances from round 5 to round 7.
Josh Allen is the only quarterback consistently drafted in the third round.
The running back cliff can be seen in the fourth round. Cam Akers has a wide range in his ADP (41.6, 30.5, and 50.3) over these three formats. He remains in a split role while having a questionable tag next to his name in mid-August, pushing some drafters in another direction.
Breece Hall appears to be the soft spot at running back in the fourth round as he brings fresh legs and a high ceiling. At the NFFC, nine wideouts have ADPs in the fourth round. Seven of those players are discounted at RTSports, with Gabriel Davis (68.9) and Marquise Brown (65.9) almost looking like layups based on the price points.
Rob Schumacher/The Arizona Republic/USA TODAY Network
The Underdog drafters fade DK Metcalf (57.2) while fighting for Marquise Brown (42.1).
J.K. Dobbins and David Montgomery are drafted almost two complete rounds earlier at RTSports. The dual flex position is a factor, but WR3s and WR4s can still provide higher ceilings with the correct team structure.
JuJu Smith-Schuster moved into the fourth round in many recent drafts at Underdog. However, his ADP at RTSports (71.9) screams layup, along with Elijah Moore (88.7).
At the NFFC, Rashod Bateman has a much lower ADP (48.6). AJ Dillon won't make it past the fifth round in many formats over the next two weeks.
Based on the draft flow at the NFFC, the running back position is full of emptiness in the sixth round. Elijah Mitchell has an ADP of 70, while no other backs consistently come off the board in this range. Drafters picked up the pace in quarterback (3) and tight end (3) selections.
At Underdog, Lamar Jackson (47.5), George Kittle (53.7), and Darren Waller (51.2) typically get selected in the fifth round. Hunter Renfrow has a wide range of ADPs (67.3, 98.6, and 83.7) in the three different formats.
The highest bet on DeAndre Hopkins (ADP – 66.4) comes in the NFFC.
The wide receiver pool starts to dry up in the NFFC in the seventh round, leaving more teams looking to secure their running back depth or taking the drop-off edge at quarterback with Jalen Hurts (75.5) or Joe Burrow (82.0).
At RTSports, the wide receiver gaps remain insanely out of line, highlighted by the ADPs of Christian Kirk (101.4) and Kadarius Toney (117.8). Josh Jacobs (44.7) is drafted much higher than in the NFFC (78.2) and Underdog (76.0).
Jalen Hurts (62.1) draws a lot more attention at Underdog while showing a willingness to fade the tight end position (T.J. Hockenson – 92.0).
Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com
The memo out of Washington to fantasy drafters has been to fade Antonio Gibson. However, the RTSports crowd (ADP – 52.5) continues to buy into his talent, while the NFFC (84.1) and (95.8) have the news priced into his draft value.
This exercise is an excellent learning curve for fantasy drafters who play in different formats. The first step in building a winning team is knowing the player pool. The second step is getting in tune with the ADPs on the software used for your draft. Finally, understanding pockets of opportunities are the key to success. In addition, a drafter must learn the strength of his opponents, which is easier in home formats.
In the end, knowing when to finesse some players and moving up potential impact options increases your chances of landing the players you want on draft day. Every draft will be different, and what works on one site may not work at another.
