For two years, it seemed as though China’s ruthless COVID-19 policy had paid off. After stumbling in its initial efforts to stem the pandemic, China’s rulers fixed a simple numeric target — zero COVID cases — and made sure everyone knew they had to reach it. The results looked severe to Western eyes, but they stopped the virus’s spread. They also gave China a propaganda victory, emboldening their claims that authoritarian governments could solve social problems better than liberal democracies, which in worrying too much about people’s civil rights, ended up killing them instead.
Now, the costs of the China’s rigidity are becoming apparent. New variants are much harder to control; more than half of China’s largest cities have seen lockdowns. Weeks after its lockdown began, some in Shanghai remain trapped in their apartments indefinitely, with many growing increasingly angry and hungry. A slew of figures shows a cratering economy in April. China’s refusal to change course demonstrates the weaknesses, not the strengths, of China’s system. Once its leaders have settled on a number like zero, it’s very hard for them to change.
Many Western observers rely on simplistic models of how China works. They imagine the Chinese government as a monolith, where leaders issue edicts that are flawlessly carried out by local agents. The reality is much messier. The Chinese state is a bewildering patchwork of bureaucratic fiefdoms, each run by petty tyrants trying to retain the favor of the party leadership, while pursuing their own self-interest.
