History is linear, yet it is punctuated by discontinuities. Things that seemed like fixtures in the firmament of the global order sometimes vanish overnight. On Dec. 26, 1991, the Soviet Union disappeared after 69 years. On Sept. 11, 2001, American security vanished in the blink of an eye. This year — on Feb. 24 — the hallowed tradition of political neutrality died when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Through a policy of neutrality and nonalignment, Sweden avoided war for more than 200 years. It escaped mostly unscathed from the world wars of the 20th century while much of Europe was reduced to rubble. By the 21st century, nonalignment had become an integral part of Swedish national DNA, a principle of identity defining what it meant to be a Swede. Swedes took pride in their reputation as a “moral superpower.” In December, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson stated, “Our nonparticipation in military alliances serves our country well and contributes to stability and security in northern Europe. Sweden will not apply for membership in NATO.” The country abandoned a 2-century-old tradition within three months of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Finland’s trajectory from nonalignment to NATO membership was more a pragmatic calculation than an ideological or moral one. Having fought dozens of wars against Russia in its history, including the brutal winter and continuation wars against the Soviet Union in the 20th century, and sharing a border with Russia of more than 800 miles, Finland has historically been distrustful of Russia. Unlike many that demobilized and disarmed when the Cold War ended, it retained male conscription and developed a whole-of-society defense architecture dubbed “comprehensive security.” As a result, Finland today can mobilize up to 280,000 armed and trained reservists within two weeks. Nonetheless, Feb. 24 convinced Finland’s leaders that they could no longer risk going it alone.
