The Indianapolis Colts are heading into an early crucial divisional matchup with the Tennessee Titans. This rivalry has been one-sided as of late.
The Titans have won five straight games against the Colts and the last time that Indianapolis beat Tennessee in Lucas Oil Stadium came back in 2018. Home games also haven’t been favorable to Indy over the past year. They have lost seven straight at home and the last win in Lucas Oil Stadium was on October 16, 2022.
Buy Colts TicketsA win for Shane Steichen’s team would be huge. Not only would it end the two losing streaks, but they would go back over .500 again and would have a 2-1 divisional record. The last three times these two franchises met it has been one-score games including one that went to overtime to decide a winner.
Let’s take a look at five things to watch for when they clash on Sunday:
1
Air attack with Anthony Richardson
While there will be eyes on seeing what this Colts rushing attack looks like with Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor (assuming he plays), this game might have to be won behind Shane Steichen’s passing attack. The Titans feature one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL and are very stout against the run.
While they still have that feistiness under Mike Vrabel, teams have had success throwing the ball against his defense this year. They are giving up 241.3 passing YPG, which is the 10th most allowed in the league.
Derek Carr and Justin Herbert threw for over 300 yards against their defense, and Deshaun Watson had his best game of the season (289 passing yards, two touchdowns) in his matchup with Tennessee.
The silver lining from last week’s overtime loss to the Los Angeles Rams was that it was Richardson’s arm, not legs, that led the 23-point comeback to tie the game in the second half.
It was the game-tying drive that was very promising for AR. He went 4-of-5 for 65 yards, a touchdown, and had the two-point conversion.
Anthony Richardson's game-tying drive. He went 4/5 for 65 yards plus the TD + two-point conversion.
– 21 yards
– 22 yards
– 17 yards (4th-and-4)
– 5 yard TD
– Two-point conversionVery promising drive by AR. pic.twitter.com/EvF9ybV6yu
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 3, 2023
Indianapolis has yet to have one of their quarterbacks to throw over 230 yards this season. If Richardson can get to that mark and protect the ball then they should be in a position to win this contest in the fourth quarter.
2
Bottling up Derrick Henry
2023 started off slow for Derrick Henry. He only has one 100-yard rushing game but he just happens to be coming off his best performance of the season against the Cincinnati Bengals. King Henry was back to his bulldozing ways this past Sunday.
VINTAGE KING HENRY 👑
📺: #CINvsTEN on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Jq9JHUeqb6 pic.twitter.com/wWcu0THkV0— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2023
He ran the ball 22 times for 122 yards and a touchdown. He also had a passing touchdown for the cherry on top.
Three straight seasons with a passing TD for Derrick Henry 👑
(by @FanDuel) pic.twitter.com/ghhrt4oUCc
— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2023
Henry has been a thorn in Indy’s side. He’s a big reason for Tennessee’s winning streak against the Colts. In the last eight meetings between the two franchises, Henry has crossed the 100-yard mark six times.
Gus Bradley’s run defense needs a bounce-back performance after their worst show of the young season against the Rams next week. After seeing Kyren Williams go over 100 yards, I am sure Henry is salivating at the chance to have back-to-back 100-yard games and take down his divisional rivals one more time.
This will be a concerted effort by the front seven but if they can keep Henry in check and limit his explosive runs, then the Colts can put the pressure on Ryan Tannehill and the passing attack to win this game for the Titans.
3
Can the rushing attack find success?
Shane Steichen’s rushing attack has found some success over the last three games with Zack Moss in the lineup but they have one of their strongest tests of the season against Tennessee. The Titans are only allowing 70.0 rushing YPG, which is the fourth-best in the NFL.
The most yards by a single back came this past weekend with Joe Mixon rushing for 67 yards against their defense. The Colts have had their struggles to run the ball in this series with the Titans. The last time a running back ran over 100 yards for Indy was Marlon Mack in 2018.
As a team, it was in 2020 they combined for over 100 rushing yards versus Tennessee, and that happened to be the last time Indianapolis beat the Titans. Ending this dry spell could be sparked by the potential return of Jonathan Taylor.
While I do expect Taylor to be eased in as he works his way back into the lineup, it will be a big boost to the rushing attack for Steichen since he will be able to rotate Taylor and Moss throughout games.
Having the pair constantly in the backfield will force the read defender to respect the handoff and can open up things for Anthony Richardson to have explosive plays with his legs. We got a glimpse of that from one of his runs against LA.
Anthony Richardson's longest run (23 yards) of the season. The read defender had to respect Zack Moss after his last 2 games.
That slight hesitation opens a wide lane behind blockers for AR. It's going to help Richardson to have both Moss and Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. pic.twitter.com/b6ekX28pSc
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 2, 2023
One thing I will be interested to see in this game and going forward is seeing some formations that feature the trio of Richardson, Taylor, and Moss in the backfield. I imagine Steichen is already using his creativity on how he can deploy the three.
A thing to monitor for the Titans’ defensive front is Teair Tart’s status. He hasn’t practiced this week due to a toe injury. They still have Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry to help stuff the run but Tart’s potential absence would be an underrated loss for their defense.
As I mentioned, this game might come down to the passing attack for the Colts but if they can find success on the ground then that will help set up a big day through the air for Richardson.
4
Getting after Ryan Tannehill
The two keys to success for Gus Bradley’s defense are bottling up Derrick Henry and getting after Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has found success in the past against the Colts when they struggled to put any pressure on him. He feeds off the play-action when the running game is going then can nickel and dime a defense when he has time in the pocket.
The Titans haven’t had much success in the air in 2023. They are averaging 169.0 passing YPG, which is the fifth-lowest in the league. Tannehill has thrown for 788 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions.
Tennessee has struggled to protect Tannehill this season so that should bode well for Indy’s defensive front. They have given up 16 sacks, which is tied for the fourth-most entering Week 5.
The more often Bradley can get his defense to get after Tannehill and not let him get into a rhythm the more his defense should be on the sidelines compared to Week 4. This game can be won if the Colts’ defensive front dominates the trenches.
5
Will the receivers win their matchups?
If Anthony Richardson is going to have a successful day throwing the ball then he will need his receivers to win their matchups on Sunday. Michael Pittman Jr. has been the most consistent receiver for the Colts this season. He has 26 receptions for 245 yards and a touchdown.
MPJ is coming off a one-catch performance so they will need more out of their No. 1 receiver in Week 5. He does have 34 receptions for 372 yards, and two touchdowns in six career games against the Titans. He hasn’t crossed the 100-yard mark yet in this series.
It has been a quiet start to the season for second-year receiver Alec Pierce. He only has seven receptions for 114 yards. One thing I was looking forward to this season was the deep ball between Richardson and Pierce. We saw it against the Rams, just would like to see the pair connect more often like this.
Just a ridiculous throw by Anthony Richardson. 2nd-and-20. Hits Alec Pierce on the right boundary for his longest competition of the game (38 yards) while Aaron Donald is draped all over him. pic.twitter.com/i3kKNWYItz
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 3, 2023
Could this be the breakout game for rookie Josh Downs? The first-year receiver has been effective with his catches. He averages 9.3 yards per reception and has picked up seven first downs for the offense. Downs has 17 receptions for 158 yards.
The blooming relationship between AR and Downs will continue to grow and we got to see the trust between the rookies on this 30-yard completion.
2nd-and-19. Anthony Richardson sits in the pocket and delivers a dart to Josh Downs for 30-yard completion. pic.twitter.com/EJkViG0k8i
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 2, 2023
If Shane Steichen’s passing attack is going to evolve then he needs more out of his receiving corps. It will likely take getting their first 100-yard receiver (MPJ – 97 yards) for the season and all three starters to create explosive plays throughout Sunday afternoon to help end the losing streak at home and to their divisional rivals.
