Just like life, there can be a lot of changes that can happen to a football team within a year.
It was just last December when the Indianapolis Colts beat their old rivals, the New England Patriots, for the first time since 2009. After that game, they were perceived as a team that nobody wanted to face in the playoffs. Then just a few weeks later they had the season-ending collapse in Jacksonville.
But with the offseason changes, most thought that team that beat the Pats could formulate once again but the complete opposite has happened. Matt Ryan has been benched, Marcus Brady has been fired, and Nyheim Hines has been traded to the Buffalo Bills. What was supposed to be a promising season for the Colts has turned into a major question for the franchise. Where are they headed?
Sitting at a 3-4-1 record, the team surprisingly still has a shot to turn the season around due to the parity across the NFL. Are they going to throw the towel in and just worry about evaluating for the 2023 season? Or will this team rally together and look to put together a strong performance over the next two months?
Only time will tell but here are five things to watch for on Sunday:
1
Scoring on the opening drive
One of the many things that the Colts are struggling to do this season is getting off to a good start on offense. They have yet to score on their opening drive this season. Which was something that they were the best at over the last few years entering this season.
TDs scored on opening drives since 2020:
15 – IND
14 – BUF, KC
13
12 – TB, GB, NE
11 – LAC, MIN
10 – LAR, SEA, DET
9 – CLE, CHI, TEN, NYJ
8 – SF, PHI, LV, CAR, MIA
7 – ARI
6 – BAL, HOU, NYG
5 – NO, ATL, PIT
4 – WAS, JAX, DAL, CIN
3
2 – DEN— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 27, 2022
They have not only been unable to score, but they have failed to move the sticks and protect the ball. There have been seven games that Indianapolis started with the ball. The results of those drives:
Punt (Three-and-out)
Interception
Punt (Three-and-out)
Fumble
Punt (Three-and-out)
Punt
Punt (Three-and-out)
The one game the Colts didn’t start with the ball, the drive ended in another three-and-out. Five of their eight opening drives resulted in three-and-outs. Then, of course, the two turnovers are just a terrible way for an offense to start their day.
These types of starts have carried over to poor first halves for the team. They have only managed 13 first-quarter points this season. If Indianapolis is going to get their first win in Foxborough since 2006 then it is imperative for them to score with their first possession.
2
2. Sam Ehlinger vs Bill Belichick
This isn’t your traditional Peyton Manning vs Bill Belichick matchup, but Sam Ehlinger will be looking to do what most haven’t. Which is to beat the Belichick-led Patriots as a first-year or second-year quarterback. New England has a 71-19 record in these types of matchups.
After avoiding a complete disaster in his first start, Ehlinger will now have to look to build upon some of the good things that he showed against the Commanders. One thing that Frank Reich should look to do is add in more wrinkles with his rushing ability.
There were a number of plays against Washington where Ehlinger had the option to keep it and he would’ve had some room to work with. His threat as a runner also helps open up lanes for his running backs. Which showed on this third down conversion.
Loved the creativity on this 3rd-and-short run call. All the misdirection keeps the defense guessing. Jonathan Taylor has plenty of space to get his longest run of the day.
You can also see how he re-injured his ankle. Gets awkwardly brought down by the defender's feet/legs. pic.twitter.com/xfY4ewqQPZ
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) October 31, 2022
Teams have shown that you can run the ball against the Patriots this season. Their defense is giving up 126.0 rushing YPG. As far as their pass defense, they have allowed 224.5 passing YPG. As much as Frank Reich would love to dominate on the ground and not have to throw the ball. He is going to have to trust his quarterback will make the correct throw.
This is where Belichick can win against young quarterbacks. He confuses them with his coverages and can bait them into interceptions. Ehlinger can’t be too risky but if he has a shot for an explosive play then he has to take it. He delivered when he did it last week.
One heck of a release by Alec Pierce and Sam Ehlinger drops it in a bucket. Longest play (47 yards) of the day for the #Colts offense. pic.twitter.com/PAtJ3Ma5js
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 1, 2022
One play from Ehlinger’s first game also has me wondering if we may see a trick play on Sunday.
Looking forward to when Frank Reich elects for Sam Ehlinger to receive the reverse handoff at some point this season. pic.twitter.com/BcnrcAPJie
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 1, 2022
That might be one Frank Reich wants to save and not put his young quarterback in a bad situation if the play doesn’t turn out right. However this game goes for Ehlinger, the one thing that you can’t doubt is his preparation.
One thing Colts QB Sam Ehlinger did this week in prep for Sunday's game in New England: seek out Stephon Gilmore for a meeting about Belichick/the Patriots. "He came to me," Gilmore said today. "Wasn't his first time doing it. He's always asking me questions."
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) November 3, 2022
This is a difficult test for the second-year quarterback but if he can beat the team that Colts fans hate the most in their home stadium, then he will be loved no matter how his career turns out.
3
Replacing Tyquan Lewis
One underlying story for the Colts defense heading into their matchup with the Patriots is how are they going to replace Tyquan Lewis. The defensive lineman, unfortunately, suffered a ruptured patellar tendon, which has ended his season. He’s a versatile piece in Gus Bradley’s unit. He was the first in the rotation of the defensive front and has been starting for Kwity Paye over the last three weeks.
His ability to play on the edge and inside gave Bradley some creativity with his defensive front but now he will need the other role players to step up in his absence. First thing that will help is getting Paye back into the lineup.
Full #Colts practice report:
— OT Dennis Kelly also missed his second straight practice
— DE Kwity Paye was a full participant for the first time in weeks (he hopes to return Sunday but wasn’t sure if it’d be possible)
— DT Grover Stewart had a rest day pic.twitter.com/YrYDedTj6Q
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) November 3, 2022
It does look promising that the second-year edge rusher will make his return. The defense has missed his pass-rushing abilities. His three sacks is the second most and he’s only played in five games. Even when Paye does make his way back on the field, Bradley also needs the rest of the rotation to deliver on the reps they get.
This is a big opportunity for Dayo Odeyingbo to start making more of an impact. The second-year defensive lineman was selected with the thought that he can be a versatile piece for a defense. With Lewis being done for the year, Odeyingbo will be leaned on more and can carve out a larger role if he delivers on his talent.
One other player that has shown some good things in his limited action has been Ifeadi Odenigbo. He might not be able to slide inside like Lewis but he can get after the quarterback on the edge.
Ifeadi Odenigbo has been solid in his role in the rotation. Great rep to help bring down Taylor Heinicke for the sack. The #Colts will need him more with the loss of Tyquan Lewis. pic.twitter.com/RDAFBI9E5E
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 1, 2022
Could we get a Ben Banogu sighting? He’s played in just 9% of the defensive snaps this season. In what is likely his last season as a Colt, he’ll need to put on some good tape to earn a spot on a different roster in 2023.
This is a game that will come down to the trenches. Tyquan Lewis will be missed battling up front but it is the next man up for the defensive front and the role players have a chance to earn more recognition.
4
The new backfield
The defense isn’t the only unit that loss a piece over the past week. The offense saw the departure of Nyheim Hines in a trade to Buffalo which leaves his role in the offense for the taking. This is still Jonathan Taylor’s backfield but after re-injuring his ankle against the Commanders, his availability is in doubt. Even if he does play on Sunday, he will likely be playing limited snaps.
The first answer to who’s going to spell Taylor and start if he misses time is Deon Jackson. He showed that he is capable to handling the majority of the snaps when he had the opportunity against the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. He managed 104 yards on 25 carries in those two games but the promising part that he flashed was his receiving ability.
It is arguable that Hines was misused this season but he was a threat as a receiver out of the backfield and that played into his role. Jackson caught the ball 14 times for 108 yards. His play in those matchups earned him snaps even when Taylor and Hines returned to the lineup.
If Taylor does have to miss then it won’t be only Jackson that will have to help replace him. In the Hines trade, the Bills sent Zack Moss as part of the package which has made him the third back on the depth chart. He didn’t play much for Buffalo this season but on the year, he’s averaging 5.4 YPC this year, which would be a career-high.
How much he will play will be dependent on how fast he can pick up the offense. If the Colts need to call up a running back off the practice squad then they got a couple options. Of course, there is Phillip Lindsay, but a familiar face is back in Indianapolis.
Wilkins hasn’t played since the 2020 season but he’s been in Frank Reich’s system which may give him the bump if Taylor is out on Sunday. The team needs a healthy Taylor but the newly formed stable of backs will be leaned on as he works his way back to normal.
5
Stopping the run
There is no secret that Bill Belichick prefers to run the ball. The guy has a three-pass-attempt win in his career. That has been the strong suit of the New England offense this season. They have been averaging 123.1 rushing YPG, which ranks 13th in the NFL. The effort has been led by Rhamondre Stevenson.
He has 558 rushing yards and four touchdowns. But it is a dual-headed backfield when Damien Harris is in the lineup. He’s missed some time but he still has 302 yards and three touchdowns. As I eluded to earlier, this game is coming down to the trenches so the defensive front has to punch the Patriots offensive line in the mouth to open the game.
It helps out the Colts when they have Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner playing like they have been this season. The pair have been dominating in the inside and can help shut down this rushing attack. Their eight TFLs accounts for 18.1% of the team’s total. They’ll need to get penetration often like they did in the fourth down stop against Washington.
Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner with great penetration on the 4th-and-1 to help force the stop. E.J. Speed cleans it up with the TFL. pic.twitter.com/M5fPhXnKXA
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 1, 2022
The potential of Kwity Paye returning can help Gus Bradley’s unit take away the run. His five TFLs is tied for the most on the team despite missing the last three games. If the Colts are able to take away the run then they can force Mac Jones to beat them.
The Patriots’ passing attack has had its struggles for the most part this season. They are averaging 211.4 passing YPG, which is the 10th lowest in the league. Then there has been the Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe dilemma. It is Jones’ job but the back-and-forth between the quarterbacks hasn’t helped the chemistry with the receivers.
Between both quarterbacks, New England has eight passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. Indianapolis has struggled generating takeaways this season but there could be an opportunity to get some on Sunday. They just need to make sure to win on the first two downs to force the Pats to go to the air.
