The NFL will be wrapping up its International Series this week, featuring a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) and New England Patriots (2-7) in Frankfurt, Germany.
This will be the third meeting between the franchises since Tom Brady left New England. The Colts beat the Pats for the first time since 2009 in 2021 but lost 26-3 in their 2022 matchup. This is a pivotal game for Indy. They have a chance to get to a .500 record heading into their bye week and can get some momentum going for a potential playoff push in their final seven games.
Here are five things to watch for when both teams kickoff Sunday football:
Force Mac Jones to make mistakes
With how the Indy offense has struggled to be consistent, they may need their defense to win this game as they did against the Carolina Panthers in Week 9. One way that Gus Bradley’s unit can help out is by forcing Mac Jones into making mistakes throughout the contest.
Jones only has two games this season where he didn’t turn the ball over, which happened to be the two games that New England has won this season. He has thrown nine interceptions, which is on pace to be a career-high. Jones threw 13 picks in his rookie year.
Year 3 has been trending down for Jones thus far. Not only with his interceptions but he also currently is set to have a career-low completion percentage (64.8%), YPA (5.4), passing YPG (206.8), and QB rating (80.2).
The Colts’ defense is tied for fourth most takeaways (14) heading into Week 10. Bradley needs to have a disruptive effort out of his defensive front and confuse Jones with coverage in the backend. If they can do both then they can force Jones into those turnovers he’s been prone to this year.
Can Gardner Minshew get back on track?
At one point this season it appeared that the Colts offense would be fine under Gardner Minshew but that has been far from the case since he took over as the starting quarterback for the remainder of the 2023 season. During the team’s three-game losing streak, he was responsible for nine turnovers.
While he protected the ball in the win over the Panthers, he had a rough evening throwing the ball. Minshew’s pocket presence was off throughout the game and was inconsistent when he put the ball in the air. More times than not, he was off the mark connecting with his receivers.
He finished with a season-low 127 passing yards. It’s no secret that Bill Belichick will look to take away what an opposing offense is best at, which for Shane Steichen is running the ball with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss.
That is what Carolina did last week and was effective at it. They dared Minshew and the passing attack to beat them. Steichen should know that is what the New England defense will do on Sunday so he needs to find a way to get his quarterback into a rhythm early in this contest.
If Indy can move the ball efficiently through the air then that can help open up things for the rushing attack. They can’t afford another bad performance out of Minshew otherwise it will be a long day in Germany for the Indy offense.
Take away Hunter Henry
If there is one player that Gus Bradley needs to limit his impact on the New England offense, it’s Hunter Henry. He’s tied for the second-most receiving yards (277) and touchdowns (3) on their team. Henry has gone over 50 receiving yards in three of their last four games.
He also has caught two touchdowns in the Pats’ last two games as well. Henry has had some nice games against the Colts in his career. In the four times he’s played them, he’s averaged 64.8 receiving YPG.
He’s faced Indianapolis twice with New England. In 2021, he had six receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Last year Henry had four receptions for 50 yards.
The Indy defense has to do a solid job at taking away Mac Jones’ safety valve and forcing others in their passing attack to beat them. The less Henry touches the ball, the more often Bradley’s unit will force New England to punt on Sunday.
Does the offensive line set the tone?
This has been a bounce-back season for the Indy offensive line despite not having their starting five in the lineup since Week 2. Braden Smith has fully practiced so far this week entering Friday and is trending in the right direction to make his return.
This would be a boost for the rushing attack against a New England defense that is allowing 100.4 rushing YPG, which is the 10th-fewest allowed in the NFL. They have only allowed one single back to cross 100 rushing yards this season.
That came from Raheem Mostert who had 121 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Pats in Week 2. This is a strength-on-strength matchup in the trenches.
Indianapolis is averaging 123.3 rushing YPG, which is the 10th-best in the league. In the two games that Zack Moss crossed 100 rushing yards, the Colts won.
The more open rushing lanes that Jonathan Taylor and Moss have to work with, the offense should find themselves in the red zone in this contest. The Indy offensive line has to set the tone on the opening drive to set up a big day for their backs and to take the pressure off Gardner Minshew.
Rotational pieces on the defensive front
Grover Stewart’s suspension has shifted more eyes on the depth of players across the defensive front. Opposing offenses have taken advantage of Stewart’s absence and have been successful in running the ball. Especially when they run away from DeForest Buckner or when he’s taking a breather on the sidelines.
When watching the game film from the Panthers matchup, it was apparent that Taven Bryan is a detriment in rush defense and Gus Bradley should consider giving more snaps to the younger players to help their development.
A couple of players that should be considered are Eric Johnson II and Adetomiwa Adebawore. Johnson II not only is a better run defender but he also can get after the quarterback.
Great job by Eric Johnson II taking on two blockers so Kwity Paye can come through on the stunt. Both players get home for a 10-yard loss on a 1st down sack. pic.twitter.com/AHeRy9DwWS
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 7, 2023
What I like about that play is that Johnson II showed he can take up space and double teams to help his teammates make plays. Adebawore had an impressive rep splitting a double team to get his first career sack.
Adetomiwa Adebawore splits a double team to get his first career sack for the #Colts pic.twitter.com/uvmpGPZERk
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 7, 2023
It wasn’t just the interior defensive lineman that flashed, there were a pair of edge rushers that popped against Carolina. Isaiah Land and Jake Martin had some solid pass rush reps in their limited action.
The pair put pressure on Bryce Young on Kenny Moore II’s first pick-six.
Isaiah Land and Jake Martin get pressure on Bryce Young to force the checkdown. Young didn't see Kenny Moore II sitting on the route and Moore II jumped into the passing window for the pick-6. pic.twitter.com/vTkbLjXLiy
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 7, 2023
Land also had pressure on Young to help force the third interception of the game.
Really liked what I've seen from Isaiah Land as a situational pass rusher. Swipes the LT's arms to get inside leverage to put pressure on Bryce Young.
Tyquan Lewis collapses the pocket from the left and Land's presence forces Young not to step into his throw.
Sets up Segun… pic.twitter.com/89mwZMrSNC
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 7, 2023
Both players have made a strong case as situational pass rushers in the rotation.
This game could come down to role players making plays for the defense, maybe one of these four can have a big-time performance in front of a national audience.
