Back at .500 on the season, the Indianapolis Colts are also returning back home this week for a matchup with the 2-3 Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins, just like the Tennessee Titans last week, are coming off their bye week, so they will have had additional rest as well as time to prepare.
While the Colts can’t look ahead to what’s upcoming on the schedule, they are entering a very daunting stretch, which includes consecutive games against Houston, Minnesota, Buffalo, the New York Jets, and Detroit.
Getting a win at home against the Dolphins–who will again be without Tua Tagovailoa–feels like a near-must.
If the Colts are going to accomplish that, here are the three keys to doing so.
Get the run game going
It’s been tough sledding in the run game for the Colts without Jonathan Taylor these past two weeks. Although Tyler Goodson has provided the offense with some juice, the combination of him and Trey Sermon are averaging under 4.0 yards per rush over the last two weeks and have been unable to eclipse the 100 yard mark.
Getting the run game going is always important, but this week against Miami, feels like a must. Through five games this season, the Dolphins have been very good at limiting opposing offenses in the passing game, but are surrendering 4.7 yards per rush in the run game, which includes giving up a number of explosive runs.
The Colts being able to move the ball on the ground will hopefully help open up passing game opportunities and keep them ahead of the sticks. However, struggling to do so will put more burden on a passing game that already faces a difficult matchup.
If Anthony Richardson is back at quarterback, which he seems to be trending in the right direction, his presence alone will provide the run game with a boost.
Win the third down battle
A key to last Sunday’s win over the Titans was that the Colts won the third down battle on both sides of the ball. The offense converted nearly 50 percent of their attempts to stay on the field, while the defense held Tennessee to just 4-for-11 on their third down attempts. In a close game, the 11 additional plays that the Colts offense was able to run were quite valuable.
This week, in regards to third downs, presents an interesting matchup. The Colts offense has been one of the best at converting on third downs, while the Dolphins defense has been one of the best at stopping the opponent from converting.
On the flip side, the Dolphins offense has been one of the worst at converting third downs and the Colts defense has been one of the worst at stopping third down conversions. On both sides of the ball something has to give and the team that can be the most consistent on these pivotal downs may end up having the upper-hand.
Get after the quarterback
I know, this could be a key to victory every week. However, given how the last two weeks have gone, regardless of who the opponent for the Colts was this week, getting after the quarterback would be one of my keys simply because we need to see the defensive front have some sort of success in that phase of the game.
In part, both the Jacksonville and Tennessee offenses haven’t made it easy on the Colts, with both units relying on the quick passing games, which makes generating pressures difficult. According to PFF, Trevor Lawrence and Will Levis were under pressure on a combined nine times out of 64 possible dropbacks. That’s a pressure rate of only 26 percent.
This week, the Colts face a Dolphins’ offensive line that ranks 15th in pressure rate allowed and 12th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric. Over the last two games, quarterback Tyler Huntley is just 4-of-12 passing when under pressure.
In order to have the opportunity to get after the quarterback, that means the Colts have to find a way to stop the run in order to put Miami in those obvious passing situations.
