As defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said earlier in the week, the playoffs start now for the Indianapolis Colts, who find themselves in what is essentially a must-win game against the Denver Broncos.
A win and Pro Football Focus has the Colts’ playoff chances increasing significantly to 68 percent. In this instance, the Colts would be only one game behind the Broncos for the last playoff spot, hold the tie-breaker, and have a favorable schedule to finish the season.
However, with a loss, their playoff chances sit at only 10 percent, per PFF, and would require a lot of outside help in order for the Colts to get there.
So, as this crucial playoff-like matchup unfolds, let’s take a look at four key elements to keep your eyes on this afternoon.
Colts offensive line vs. Denver defensive front
Injuries this season along the Colts’ offensive line has led to inconsistent play at times. Prior to Jonathan Taylor’s nearly 100-yard performance against New England, he was averaging fewer than 3.0 yards per carry over the previous month if you subtract his one 58-yard run against Buffalo from the equation. In pass protection, meanwhile, Anthony Richardson has been pressured at the fifth-highest rate over the last three games.
Opposite of the Colts will be one of the most disruptive defensive fronts in football. Against the run, the Broncos are allowing the third-fewest yards per rush, while they’re also forcing the third-highest pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks.
To state the obvious, how the offensive line performs will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Success still begins with the rushing attack for Indianapolis and time in the pocket for Richardson is a must. The Colts will be without Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith in this game.
Can Colts’ pass rush get home?
Particularly since DeForest Buckner returned against Houston after being in injured reserve, the Colts’ pass rush has picked up steam. Overall this season, they rank 11th in quarterback pressure rate.
However, the Broncos offensive line has been among the best at keeping quarterback Bo Nix clean. Denver has has allowed the seventh-lowest pressure rate in 2024, the third-fewest sacks, and the collective unit ranks first in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric.
From a clean pocket, Nix is completing 71 percent of his passes this season at 7.0 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns to four interceptions. But when under pressure, his completion rate is just 44 percent at 5.3 yards per pass with three touchdowns and four interceptions.
Now, of course, in order to have the opportunity to rush the quarterback, the Colts have to stop the Denver run game on early downs. This, as we all know, has been a major issue for the Indianapolis defense all season. The Broncos will enter this game averaging 4.2 yards per carry as a team, which ranks 19th.
Colts receivers and tight ends
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said earlier in the week that this week was going to require the best game of the season from the Colts’ receivers and tight ends, which means–as Orlovsky put it–zero drops.
Indianapolis went into the bye week ranked 20th in dropped passes, according to PFF, which 19 on the season, seven of which have occurred in the last three games.
With it potentially being tough sledding in the run game and Richardson possibly not having a lot of time in the pocket against this Denver front, the passing game may have to shoulder the workload this week, meaning that the Colts’ receivers have to be in the right spots, win their routes quickly, and if the ball comes their way, catch it.
The quarterbacks as ball carriers
For the Colts’ Richardson’s ability with the ball in his hands could prove to be a crucial element in this game. For one, Richardson’s elite ability to avoid sacks may be quite useful against the Denver front, but also, designed runs can stress a defense horizontally, helping to create space, while getting him on the move and out of the pocket could help take some of the bit away from the Broncos’ pass rush. There is also the big play ability that can come from off-script plays in scramble-mode.
On the other side of the ball, Nix has been effective as a ball carrier as well, totaling 304 rushing yards this season–the ninth-most among quarterbacks. Behind an already stout offensive line, Nix’s ability to avoid pressure and make plays outside of the pocket only amplifies the challenge that the Colts’ defense faces.
