It’s only Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, but the Indianapolis Colts already find themselves in a must-win game. Recent NFL history suggests that an 0-3 start is nearly impossible to overcome when it comes to making the playoffs.
In a nuanced game like football, there is always a lot to keep our eyes on each week, but below are what I believe to be the big ticket items that, regardless of how it unfolds, will carry a lot of weight in determining the winner of this matchup with the Chicago Bears.
I also make my prediction as well. So before kickoff arrives, let’s dive in:
Who wins? Colts run defense or Bears run game?
We all know how poorly the Colts’ run defense has been through two games, surrendering 237 rushing yards per game so far, with both Houston and Green Bay running wild on the Indianapolis’ front seven.
Well, the Bears rushing offense has had their own issues. As a group, they’re averaging just 3.5 yards per rush, which ranks 29th. D’Andre Swift, their lead ball carrier, has only 48 yards on 24 carries.
The winner of this matchup will likely have a leg up when it comes to winning the game. The Colts ability to slow the Bears run game, will put more stress on the offensive line and a struggling passing game. The Bears’ ability to run the ball will put the offense in advantageous down-and-distances and allow them to control the game flow.
The return of Josh Downs
The importance of getting Josh Downs back can’t be overstated for a Colts’ offense that has struggled to find consistency in the passing game. Through two games, the passing attack has been extremely boom or bust, but the return of Downs should provide a boost to the short to intermediate passing games.
Downs is coming off an impressive rookie season, one that GM Chris Ballard believes flew under the radar, and appeared poised to make that Year 2 leap we often hear about prior to his injury. In the early portion of training camp, Downs was a go-to target for Anthony Richardson, with the two having developed a strong rapport.
Can Colts get Jonathan Taylor going early?
Jonathan Taylor had an impressive performance last week in Green Bay, totaling 103 rushing yards at 8.6 yards per rush. The problem, however, was that he only had 12 carries.
In this game, there needs to be a concerted effort to get Taylor and the run game going right away. Doing so will relieve a lot of the playmaking burden that is currently on Richardson’s plate. A strong run game results in short down-and-distance situations, opening up the playbook and opportunities in the passing game.
A run game can be a quarterback’s best friend.
The Bears’ passing game
This is why slowing the Bears on the ground is so important for the Colts–their passing game has struggled. In two games, Caleb Williams is averaging only 4.0 yards per pass attempt and the Bears as an offense are averaging just 99.0 passing yards per game.
There should also be the opportunity for the Colts pass rush in these situations to get after a Bears’ offensive line unit that ranks ninth in pressure rate allowed and has given up the second-most sacks.
The turnover battle
You win the turnover battle, you win very often will win the game. This week the Colts are facing a Bears defense that has generated four takeaways in two games, including three interceptions. This is tied for the third-most at this point in the season.
The Colts, meanwhile, have forced just one takeaway in two games. Perhaps the best way to overcome mistakes or up-and-down play is with turnovers. Can the Colts get the upper hand this week?
Prediction: Colts win
As I’ve said throughout the week, turning this season around for the Colts begins with improved run defense. As of now, there hasn’t exactly been anything done on the Colts’ part to give us confidence that this will be the week things improve, but as the numbers above indicate, this Bears offense has really struggled in both phases of the game–so I guess I’m giving the Colts the benefit of the doubt.
That coupled with the Colts being at home and having their backs against the wall, I’m hoping leads to a high-energy performance that gives them the edge in what I believe will be a close game.
