By NFL Next Gen Stats metrics, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson made two of the more improbable completions in Week 1 of the regular season.
To determine the likelihood of a given completion, Next Gen Stats takes into account air distance, air yards, and receiver separation, among other metrics, to determine the probability that the pass should have been completed.
Within the top 10 of this Week 1 list, Richardson made two appearances.
Richardson’s 60-yard completion to Alec Pierce that went for a touchdown came in at No. 5 on the list. This was truly a spectacular throw, with Richardson facing pressure and slightly off-balanced, he delivered a strike to Pierce on a pass that traveled 60-plus yards.
The completion probability on this throw, according to Next Gen Stats, was only 28.5 percent.
Richardson then came in at No. 8 on this list as well for his 57-yard completion to Pierce. The probability of this pass being completed was only 31.3 percent.
These two throws highlighted the tremendous upside that Richardson possesses as a quarterback, and despite the loss to the Houston Texans, should spark optimism about what’s to come for Richardson and the offense.
With throws like this on tape, it’s going to alter how defenses defend the Colts, which can help open up opportunities in the run game and on underneath routes.
Overall, Richardson still needs to find more consistency, specifically on some of the more short to intermediate throws where a few opportunities were missed on Sunday. But ups and downs should be expected early on given that this was only his fifth regular season NFL game.
However, if I’m able to choose, I’d rather my quarterback have the arm talent and ability to connect on the big throws and need to work on the layups rather than the other way around.
