Welcome to rivalry week, a week where you throw the records out and only what’s happening on the field matters. Our picks competition is similarly right with Pat Forde holding a two-game lead. Two weeks remain. Who will emerge victorious?
All lines courtesy of SI Sportsbook. Last week: Forde 3–2, Johnson 4–1. Season: Forde 35-27-2, Johnson 33-29-2.
UTSA vs. Tulane (-3) [Friday]
Johnson: Tulane. It feels like Tulane’s been holding something back in the second half of the season. If that’s the case, then now’s the time to let it rip. This one’s a de facto AAC semifinal game. I think Michael Pratt and the solid Wave will have enough to get over a UTSA team looking to win the league in their first year in it.
Forde: UTSA. The Roadrunners aren't just winning, they're winning big. Their seven-game winning streak since QB Frank Harris came back from injury is by an average of 18.9 points, and only one of those victories was by single digits. Tulane, meanwhile, has been living a bit more dangerously. Four of its last five wins have been by one score. This is a great quarterback matchup and should be a fun game to watch.
Oregon State vs. Oregon (-13.5) [Friday]
Johnson: Oregon. There’s nothing Oregon State people would love more than to ruin Oregon’s dreams of the Playoffs and the conference title in the last official Civil War game (until the two sides can agree to play again). A high spread here may surprise you, but Oregon’s proven they won’t let off the gas, and with all their goals in front of them, I don’t think they will here either. Ducks fly high over the Beavs.
Forde: Oregon. Is there a hotter team in the nation right now than the Ducks? Maybe Georgia, but that's it. Oregon also has reached the Style Points segment of the season, where winning big could matter in the ordering of the one-loss teams trying to crash the College Football Playoff, and Bo Nix could use some big stats in the Heisman Trophy race. So if the Ducks offense gets rolling against the Beavers, don't expect them to ease off.
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Ohio State vs. Michigan (-4)
Johnson: Ohio State. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Ohio State is coming into this game flying way too far under the radar. It doesn’t even feel like they’re undefeated. It’s quiet. Too quiet. Give me the Buckeyes, who I think have more ways to win this game against a Michigan offense that leaves a lot to be desired.
Forde: Michigan. I made this pick in the Forde-Yard Dash Monday and have had decreasing confidence in it ever since—but I'll ride with it. My thinking is that the Wolverines have a significant edge at quarterback; that Kyle McCord will struggle without a clean pocket; that the Ohio State defense still has to prove how improved it is in THIS game; and that the Buckeyes' offensive line has to show it can move Michigan's front—especially in short-yardage situations. If Sherrone Moore wins this one, he goes into Michigan's Interim Coach Hall of Fame alongside Steve Fisher.
Florida state (-6.5) vs. Florida
Johnson: Florida State. I know much will be made about Jordan Travis’s absence, but Graham Mertz being out is arguably a bigger deal for this game. FSU can still run a functional and varied offense with their backup quarterback considering all the skilled talent they have at their disposal. Florida might have to run the single wing in this game. Stop the run, and the Noles win.
Forde: Florida State. In a battle of backup quarterbacks, I trust the Seminoles' surrounding cast more than the Gators'. Tate Rodemaker replaced an injured Jordan Travis last year at Louisville and played very well, so we know he has it in him. Max Brown has thrown a total of 12 college passes. Given what's at stake, I expect Florida State to be totally locked in. Meanwhile, at 5–6, does Florida care that much about winning to go to a low-level bowl game?
