Going into Week 5, the College Football Playoff picture is looking awfully murky, setting the sport up for some particularly heated debates if this keeps up. Bring it on.
With Ohio State leading the way still, there are seven college football teams with at least a 30 percent chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor formula as of Friday. After holding off Notre Dame for a Week 4 win, the Buckeyes’ playoff chances saw a small boost to 60.3 percent, up from 57.7 percent last week. But they’re still comfortably at the top.
There was some notable movement among last week’s teams with the best playoff chances, with Oklahoma’s dipping 2.6 percent, while Texas’ chances got a 9.4 percent boost. However, both teams are still among the top four.
But Penn State and Oregon saw two of the biggest jumps in College Football Playoff chances since last week. They were seventh and eighth, respectively, on last week’s list and are now pretty close to breaking into the top-4 teams with the best playoff chances.
Overall, only one team among those with the top-10 playoff chances, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, has a loss: 3-1 Alabama. Everyone else is looking good at 4-0.
The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.
Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Friday.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)
- Playoff: 60.3 percent
- National championship game: 36.6 percent
- Win championship: 21.8 percent
2. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0)
- Playoff: 47.9 percent
- National championship game: 27.1 percent
- Win championship: 15.2 percent
3. Texas Longhorns (4-0)
- Playoff: 43.7 percent
- National championship game: 22.7 percent
- Win championship: 11.7 percent
4. Georgia Bulldogs (4-0)
- Playoff: 35.1 percent
- National championship game: 17.7 percent
- Win championship: 8.7 percent
Not only did Texas’ playoff chances get a boost after it crushed Baylor in Week 4, but it was enough to overtake the place of defending national champion Georgia — though the Bulldogs are obviously still up there. With Texas’ nearly 10 percent increase and Georgia’s playoff chances dropping by about six percent, the two swapped positions.
The Big 12 maintaining two teams among the top four in playoff chances suggests a couple things. First, the algorithm anticipates the conference championship game will be between Oklahoma and Texas, presumably entering with undefeated records, and the loser won’t lose by much, allowing the selection committee to view it in a somewhat favorable light still. Oklahoma has a 49.6 percent chance to win the conference, while Texas has a 38.3 percent chance, according to ESPN’s FPI.
But two Big 12 teams in the mix also suggests some of the other Power Five conferences aren’t particularly impressive so far. Because really, if you had to pick a conference to have two playoff teams at the beginning of the season, would you have picked the Big 12 over the SEC and Big Ten? Probably not.
And a Pac-12 team not showing up until No. 6 on this list — despite the conference having six teams currently ranked in the AP’s top-25 poll — feels disrespectful by the algorithm.
Here's a look at the remaining teams in the top 10 for best College Football Playoff chances:
5. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)
- Playoff: 33.7 percent
- National championship game: 17.0 percent
- Win championship: 8.6 percent
6. Oregon Ducks (4-0)
- Playoff: 32.8 percent
- National championship game: 15.7 percent
- Win championship: 6.8 percent
7. Florida State (4-0)
- Playoff: 30.2 percent
- National championship game: 12.8 percent
- Win championship: 5.5 percent
8. Washington Huskies (4-0)
- Playoff: 23.3 percent
- National championship game: 10.4 percent
- Win championship: 4.4 percent
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-1)
- Playoff: 21.0 percent
- National championship game: 11.5 percent
- Win championship: 5.9 percent
10. USC Trojans (4-0)
- Playoff: 18.3 percent
- National championship game: 8.5 percent
- Win championship: 3.7 percent
The teams with the top-10 best playoff chances remained the same compared with last week but are ordered differently now.
Going into Week 4 against Iowa, the Nittany Lions had a 26 percent chance to make the playoff, a 12.4 percent chance to advance to the title game and a 6.2 percent chance to win it all. After shutting out the then-No. 24 Hawkeyes, Penn State saw a boost in all three categories. And now, it’s 1.4 percentage points away from being even with Georgia.
After dealing Colorado its first loss of the season in dominating fashion, Oregon’s playoff hopes saw a notable increase as well. The Ducks’ playoff chances ahead of the Colorado game were 24.3 percent, while their shot at getting to the national championship game was at 10.9 percent and their chance of winning was 4.8 percent.
Both Oregon and Penn State are moving up, and anything but commanding wins could shuffle this list again.
