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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Michelle R. Martinelli

College Football Playoff watch: Is an SEC-less top 4 really a possibility?

SEC Football College Football Playoff Washington ACC Michael Penix Jr Ohio State Huskies Oklahoma (Organization) Oregon (Organization)

Anything is possible in college football, and everyone from diehard fans to casuals knows that. So yes, a College Football Playoff without the SEC being represented is possible, but exactly how likely is it?

Well, after Week 7’s games, the four teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff do not include an SEC representative. Like last week, Oklahoma still has the strongest chance to make the playoff, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm.

Going into Week 8, the Sooners have a 70.1 percent chance to make the playoff, which is just a one percent dip from last week, followed by Ohio State, Florida State and Washington with the latter two being new to the top four on this list. The first SEC team, Georgia, dropped from the third-best chance to seventh-best since last week.

The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the Football Power Index.

Here’s a look at the top teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Wednesday.

1. Oklahoma Sooners (6-0)

Playoff: 70.1 percent
National championship game: 39.9 percent
Win championship: 22.3 percent

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)

Playoff: 55.6 percent
National championship game: 33.1 percent
Win championship: 18.9 percent

3. Florida State (6-0)

Playoff: 43.0 percent
National championship game: 18.9 percent
Win championship: 8.7 percent

4. Washington Huskies (6-0)

Playoff: 39.9 percent
National championship game: 16.4 percent
Win championship: 6.2 percent

Let’s get the two simple ones out of the way: Oklahoma’s chances across the board in Week 8 are nearly identical to Week 7, and Ohio State’s numbers are up a couple points. Given the playoff projections and changes so far this season, these two teams appear untouchable for the Playoff Predictor algorithm, meaning it would almost certainly require a loss for their playoff chances to see a big drop. And even then, depending on the circumstances of the loss or if it’s in a conference title game, the Sooners’ and Buckeyes’ chances still could remain pretty strong.

Now, onto Florida State and Washington, which saw the two largest jumps on this list since Week 7.

Florida State has had a couple close calls so far this season, but it’s still undefeated and sitting at the top of the ACC standings. Last week, it was No. 9 on this list — and labeled a dark-horse contender — with a 25.6 percent chance to make the playoff.

Since crushing Syracuse last week, Florida State saw a 17.4 percent increase in its playoff chance, enough to move into the No. 3 spot and replace Georgia, which beat Vanderbilt last week but allowed the Commodores to cover. Although it only has a 29 percent chance to win out, per ESPN’s FPI, it should be able to cruise through the rest of the to the ACC title game. Win that, and Florida State could be looking at its first playoff appearance since the format’s inception in the 2014-15 season.

As for Washington, the Huskies delivered a thrilling victory over Oregon in Week 7, in large part thanks to Heisman Trophy frontrunner Michael Penix Jr. And their playoff chances shot up just like Florida State’s.

After being No. 10 on this list last week with a 22.0 percent chance to make the playoff, Washington jumped nearly 18 percent to replace the Ducks among the top-4 teams. The Pac-12 is going out with a bang this season, and the Huskies certainly seem like the conference’s highest hope — though Oregon could end up in the mix still if it finishes as a one-loss Pac-12 champ.

At this point, it seems extremely unlikely that these top-4 teams will be in the College Football Playoff because it seems extremely unlikely that an SEC team won’t have a stronger resume when the time comes. But the conference has notably fewer potential playoff teams than in the past, when debates sometimes included whether or not the SEC should get two representatives. Purely speculating: If the playoff committee this season has to choose between the ACC champ, the SEC champ and the Pac-12 champ for two playoff spots, it would select the latter two more often than not.

There’s more parity this season than recent years and more unpredictability as a result. The SEC has never been excluded from the four-team playoff, but a down year by the conference’s high standards, coupled with greater variety from other conferences’ playoff contenders, could make it a (long-shot) reality in 2023.