An eventful Week 3 of college football that saw the top teams in the nation absolutely dominate their competition, the squads with the best shot at making the College Football Playoff didn’t chance much. Their chances, however, did, and defending champ Georgia jumped from the No. 3 spot last week to the top.
The top-4 teams with the best playoff chances, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor formula, have remained the same week after week since the preseason with varying orders. But this season so far, it’s always been Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson.
Ahead of Week 4, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Wednesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.
Top-4 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff in Week 4
1. Georgia Bulldogs (3-0)
- Playoff: 79.6 percent
- National championship game: 52.3 percent
- Win championship: 30.6 percent
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
- Playoff: 75.9 percent
- National championship game: 50.0 percent
- Win championship: 29.0 percent
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0)
- Playoff: 67.6 percent
- National championship game: 37.8 percent
- Win championship: 19.1 percent
4. Clemson Tigers (3-0)
- Playoff: 36.2 percent
- National championship game: 12.7 percent
- Win championship: 4.7 percent
Last weekend, top-ranked Georgia demolished South Carolina, 48-7, with quarterback Stetson Bennett being the Bulldogs’ leading rusher (and passer, obviously), racking up three total touchdowns. Georgia’s playoff chance is now up nearly 10 points from 69.9 percent last week, and in Week 4, that’s strong enough to be at the top of this list. The Bulldogs moved up in the other two categories as well with their chance to advance to the national championship game up 11.5 percent and their shot at winning it all up 9.2 percent.
Stetson Bennett crossed up this defender 😨🍿
(@Jeep) pic.twitter.com/jZNOzHeUaU
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 17, 2022
Alabama’s likelihood of making the playoff dipped a little bit from last week’s 83.9 percent, despite the Crimson Tide’s 63-7 win over UL Monroe, and the same goes for Ohio State, which dropped about 12 points from 79.9 percent since last week. They had the top-2 chances in Week 3, respectively, but with Georgia’s surge, they shifted down a spot.
As for Clemson, the Playoff Predictor seems to be losing faith in the Tigers because their playoff chances continue to fall. Going into Week 3, their shot at the playoff was 46.0 percent, down 15.5 percent from Week 2, and now, their chances have dropped nearly 10 percent. Similarly, Clemson’s likelihood of advancing to the title game is down nearly 5 percent, and its shot at winning it all is down 1.7 percent. And so the gap between No. 4 on this list and No. 5 just keeps shrinking, and it’s possible that Clemson will need a perfect season, along with an ACC title, to make the playoff.
Shipley is that dude 😤 pic.twitter.com/e6kqlYkmAl
— ClemsonSportsNetwork (@ClemsonSportNet) September 18, 2022
Here’s a look at the rest of the teams with the top-10 best College Football Playoff chances in Week 4
5. Michigan Wolverines (3-0)
- Playoff: 31.4 percent
- National championship game: 12.2 percent
- Win championship: 4.7 percent
6. USC Trojans (3-0)
- Playoff: 20.0 percent
- National championship game: 6.1 percent
- Win championship: 2.3 percent
7. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)
- Playoff: 18.1 percent
- National championship game: 6.1 percent
- Win championship: 2.2 percent
8. Texas Longhorns (2-1)
- Playoff: 16.1 percent
- National championship game: 6.0 percent
- Win championship: 2.1 percent
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)
- Playoff: 15.1 percent
- National championship game: 4.6 percent
- Win championship: 1.3 percent
10. Tennessee Volunteers (3-0)
- Playoff: 13.6 percent
- National championship game: 4.9 percent
- Win championship: 1.7 percent
Last week, Mississippi State occupied the No. 10 spot on this list, but after losing to LSU, the Bulldogs dropped out. Replacing them is Oklahoma, which has been in and out of the top-10 since the beginning of the season.
And after the Sooners wrecked an already struggling Nebraska team in Week 3, not only did they return to the top-10, but they also jumped Big 12 foe Texas, along with Penn State and Tennessee.
Texas, however, is still hanging in there as the only team with a loss among those with the top-10 best playoff chances. If the Longhorns can win the Big 12 and their only loss remains a nail-biter against Alabama, there’s a clear path to the playoff for them.
