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USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Michelle R. Martinelli

College Football Playoff watch: Do we need to brace ourselves for an all-SEC/Big Ten playoff?

SEC Big Ten Playoff Football College Football Playoff Ohio State TCU Tennessee (Organization) Georgia (Organization) ACC

Although the 2022 College Football Playoff picture has become much clearer with the first three editions of the playoff rankings, there are still plenty of questions and hypothetical scenarios flying around with a few weeks of football to be played.

Two SEC teams or two Big Ten teams making the final four is on the table now, but is it really that realistic of an option? What about an all-SEC/Big Ten playoff?

We’ll get to the plausibility of those scenarios momentarily. But first, some data on which teams have the best shot at making the playoff.

Ahead of Week 12’s games, here’s a look at the top-10 teams with the best chances to make the College Football Playoff, along with their chances of advancing to the title game and winning it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, as of Wednesday. The Playoff Predictor utilizes an algorithm that factors in the same considerations as the selection committee, such as strength of record, number of losses and conference championships (or independent status), along with the FPI.

1. Georgia Bulldogs (10-0)

Playoff: 96.6 percent
National championship game: 65.5 percent
Win championship: 39.5 percent

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)

Playoff: 89.1 percent
National championship game: 54.9 percent
Win championship: 29.3 percent

3. Michigan Wolverines (10-0)

Playoff: 65.1 percent
National championship game: 29.4 percent
Win championship: 12.6 percent

4. Tennessee Volunteers (9-1)

Playoff: 60.2 percent
National championship game: 23.6 percent
Win championship: 9.1 percent

The first and most obvious thing about the teams with the current top-4 chances to make the playoff is they don’t match the top four in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. Tuesday’s third installment of the rankings has Georgia, Ohio State and Michigan as the top three teams, respectively, but undefeated TCU is fourth while Tennessee is fifth.

Of course, the rankings don’t mean much, especially not with so much football yet to be played. And although the rankings are based on what the teams have done so far, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor algorithm also takes into account how upcoming matchups could play out.

An all-SEC/Big Ten playoff would certainly be annoying for huge swaths of fans, but it’s one of a handful of possible options remaining in Week 12.

A hypothetical scenario that could get these four teams in the playoff would be something along the lines of Tennessee winning out and Georgia beating LSU in the SEC championship game. The Volunteers would then remain a strong one-loss team, falling only to the undefeated conference champion Bulldogs. On the Big Ten side, whichever team wins the Ohio State-Michigan game would presumably go on to win the conference title game, and, as long as it’s a close rivalry game, the playoff committee could still favor the one-loss loser over a Big 12, ACC or Pac-12 conference champ, regardless of losses.

What could blow this scenario up, obviously, is an unexpected loss from one of these squads — like, say, LSU topping Georgia in the conference championship game — or the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game losing badly.

However, undefeated TCU cannot be overlooked. The Horned Frogs are No. 4 in the latest rankings and No. 5 on this list. If they emerge as undefeated Big 12 champions, it’d be challenging (though not impossible) for the committee to disregard them in favor of a one-loss not-conference champ, like Tennessee or the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game. This scenario seems like the simplest and most likely to play out at this point (cue chaos).

But what about Clemson? The College Football Playoff regulars could win out, win the ACC and be a one-loss conference champ, thanks to Notre Dame. If Tennessee doesn’t finish strong, the Ohio State-Michigan game ends really badly for the loser and/or TCU slips up somewhere — the Horned Frogs have just a 17.3 percent chance to win out — there could be room for the Tigers in the playoff.

That seems like a lot of “ifs,” but two SEC teams and one Big Ten team OR two Big Ten teams and one from the SEC, plus either TCU as a Big 12 champ or Clemson as an ACC champ, also seem like reasonable options.

Looking at strength of record and strength of schedule, Georgia, Tennessee and TCU have notable advantages in both categories over Michigan and Ohio State. So maybe the frontrunner scenario at this point is two SEC teams, the Big Ten champ and a wait-and-see situation for the remaining fourth spot.