It’s here. It’s finally here.
The expanded College Football Playoff has arrived, and it could not have come at a more perfect time with the sport lacking a truly elite team at the top. All 12 entrants into the field this season are perfectly capable of winning three or four games on their way to a national championship, and the action should be incredible with first-round games on campus that feature everything from Touchdown Jesus under the lights to an all-orange matchup on the 40 Acres.
Who has the easiest path to hoisting that golden cylinder? What should you look out for? What’s the best game?
Here is a breakdown of the inaugural 12-team bracket and the matchups that will determine the last team standing Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
The bubble talk wasn’t too much of a discussion
When it comes to March Madness, an inordinate amount of time is spent debating the teams on the bubble of getting into the bracket. That wasn’t the case for football after Saturday’s wild set of conference title-game results essentially boxed the selection committee into simply choosing between the SMU Mustangs or the Alabama Crimson Tide, who were sitting at home with a 9–3 record.
“The way SMU played in that [title] game, losing on a last-second field goal, we felt like in this case SMU had the nod above Alabama,” committee chair and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said after the bracket was announced. “That’s no disrespect to Alabama’s strength of schedule.”
The strength-of-schedule argument, not to mention the general eye test, was among the most-debated talking points, and the committee wisely decided not to punish SMU for running the table in its first season in the ACC and losing by a field goal at the last second. The folks in Tuscaloosa, Ala., will be griping about what kind of message this sends and how the committee didn’t properly evaluate their program. However, Kalen DeBoer’s squad shouldn’t have lost to a dreadful Oklahoma Sooners team or gotten pushed around in a loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores.
It was also notable that despite the lobbying efforts by American Athletic Conference commissioner Tim Pernetti, the Army Black Knights were nowhere near close enough to overtaking the Clemson Tigers as the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, with the 11–1 Cadets finishing No. 22 in the final rankings—six spots behind Dabo Swinney’s crew.
Texas and Penn State received the most favorable paths to a title
Speaking of conference commissioners, just about all of the FBS leaders have mentioned seeing how this version of the 12-team playoff will play out before they go about making changes, and it sure seems like one big flaw in the current setup is the lack of reseeding.
The No. 5 Texas Longhorns or No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions have the most favorable paths to the national title despite having to play an extra game (or two if you include the conference championships they both lost in).
The Horns get the lowest-seeded team in Clemson and will play the Tigers in Austin, but also get the benefit of going to the Peach Bowl to face the Arizona State Sun Devils if they win. While Austin native and Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik proved he’s more than capable of being dangerous and ASU tailback Cam Skattebo is a load in the running game, Steve Sarkisian’s team is capable of making it to the semifinals with ease. They would play in early January up the road in the Cotton Bowl should they make it that far. Plus, their bogey team, the Georgia Bulldogs, is on the opposite side of the bracket, so a potential third meeting would be the last game of the season.
Penn State will get the benefit of hosting an SMU side that snuck into the field, and with a win, would head to the desert to get the lone Group of 5 team in the field, the Boise State Broncos. Though Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty will be ready to go in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve, the Nittany Lions have the No. 9 rush defense in FBS and can overwhelm QB Maddux Madsen with the pass rush, featuring game-wrecker Abdul Carter.
Top-seed Oregon has the most difficult path to the title game
Congratulations to Dan Lanning for navigating a tricky first season in the Big Ten to go undefeated, your reward is perhaps the most difficult set of teams to play if you want to win it all.
First up is either a rematch with the No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes—perhaps the most talented overall team despite two losses—or a No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers with a ferocious defensive front. Even if you were to win that Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day, your reward is to move on to the Cotton Bowl against … either Texas or an Arizona State Sun Devils team that just played at AT&T Stadium and features a ton of Lone Star State ties on the roster.
Finally, you’ll have to beat either Georgia in Atlanta in the championship game, or perhaps a red-hot Notre Dame or Penn State that gave you all sorts of fits in Indianapolis on Saturday in the Big Ten championship game.
Woof. If Phil Knight really wants a title to come to Eugene, his Ducks will earn it the hard way.
Georgia is the favorite to win it all
Kirby Smart preached the benefits of rest ad nauseam after winning the SEC, and the Bulldogs figure to be quite rested by the time they play either Indiana or Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. They’ll be a decent favorite in that game, and if they win, will go to the Orange Bowl against either Penn State or one of the two weakest teams in the field, Boise State or SMU.
Then there’s the matter of playing that title game right down the road from Athens, Ga., in January.
This isn’t Smart’s best team and there are plenty of other issues Georgia will need to sort out, but in terms of path and matchups, the SEC champions will once again earn the label of CFP favorites.
Indiana at Notre Dame is the best way to start the first round
Rudy vs. Hoosiers, who do you have?
The intra-state matchup between the Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish will kick off the first round and become the instant showpiece for why games on campus matter with Touchdown Jesus being lit up under the lights. This will be the 30th meeting between the two programs but notably the first since 1991 (an Irish win at Notre Dame Stadium).
Given how Indiana coach Curt Cignetti is capable of boasting, Marcus Freeman better not overlook the Hoosiers. There will be significant bragging rights on the line given both the playoff stakes and the two local rivals meeting in the Friday prime-time TV slot.
This one is also fascinating because it pits the No. 2 scoring offense in FBS (Indiana) and the No. 3 unit (Notre Dame) against their respective opposing defenses that both rank in the top six in points per game allowed. Fun.
Tennessee at Ohio State is the best of the first-round matchups
If you’re an NFL scout, chances are high you’ve already booked a trip to Columbus for only the second meeting between the Volunteers and Buckeyes (the 1996 Citrus Bowl being the other, a 20–14 Vols win). From the next wave of first-rounders like Buckeyes wideout Jeremiah Smith to this spring’s potential top-five pick like Vols edge rusher James Pearce Jr., this matchup does not lack for high-end talent.
It also makes for a fun meeting of Josh Heupel’s offense (averaging 37.3 ppg) against an Ohio State defense led by Jim Knowles that is limiting opponents to just 10.9 points per game. Throw in the general angst that Buckeyes fans have been feeling in the wake of the loss to the Michigan Wolverines and there’s a reason why this was an easy selection for ESPN to put as the final game of the first round.
The weather will be a factor for three of the first-round matchups
While we don’t quite get a slew of southern SEC teams going north (it gets chilly in Knoxville, Tenn., this time of year), the elements will be a factor in three of the first-round games from the perspective of both on-field product and what things will look like on TV.
The early weather forecasts have South Bend with a high of 32 when Notre Dame hosts Indiana and a game-time temperature around 24 with wind. The Hoosiers are certainly no strangers to playing in those conditions, but 15-plus-mph winds could impact things in the passing game for both sides.
Meanwhile, snow showers are scheduled for the Friday prior to Penn State’s noon ET kickoff against SMU in State College, Pa., with a high of 31 on game day. It’s set to be windy with a high of 34 in Columbus, too, when the Vols come north to the Horseshoe.
If anybody lucks out, it will be those basking outside in a relative balmy 63 in Austin for the matinee between Clemson and Texas.
Should be fun either way as the College Football Playoff gets underway in two weeks.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as College Football Playoff Bracket Analysis: Easiest, Hardest Paths to National Championship Game.
