May arabica coffee (KCK26) on Tuesday closed down -11.95 (-4.01%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) closed down -133 (-3.86%).
Coffee prices sold off sharply on Tuesday, with arabica falling to a 3-week low and robusta dropping to an 8-month nearest-futures low. Coffee prices have retreated over the past two weeks amid expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop. On March 19, Marex Group Plc projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 75.9 million bags, even higher than Sucafina's forecast of 75.4 million bags, up +15.5% y/y. On March 12, StoneX raised its Brazil 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags, up from a November estimate of 70.7 million bags. Meanwhile, StoneX projected the 2026 global coffee surplus will expand to 10 million bags from 1.8 million bags in 2025, the biggest surplus in 6 years.
