December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ24) today is up +21 (+0.31%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ24) is up +50 (+0.97%).
Cocoa prices today recovered from early losses and are moderately higher as oversold conditions in cocoa futures sparked technical short covering. Cocoa prices have slumped over the past week, with NY cocoa posting an 8-month nearest-futures low today and London cocoa posting a 3-week low. Harvest pressures in the Ivory Coast are undercutting cocoa prices. Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 192,804 MT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to October 20, up +12.9% from 170,794 MT shipped the same time last year. The Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa producer.
Cocoa prices are also weighed down by negative carryover from last Friday when Ivory Coast regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao raised its Ivory Coast 2024/25 cocoa production estimate to 2.1 MMT to 2.2 MMT from a June forecast of 2.0 MMT.
Recent global cocoa demand news has been mixed. Last Thursday, the National Confectioners Association reported that North American Q3 cocoa grindings rose +12% y/y to 109,264 MT. Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 Asian cocoa grinding rose +2.6% y/y to 216,998 MT. However, the European Cocoa Association reported that European Q3 cocoa grindings fell -3.3% y/y to 354,335 MT.
Shrinking global cocoa stockpiles are bullish for prices. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 17 months and fell to a 15-year low Thursday of 1,833,436 bags.
Cocoa found support after Ghana's Cocoa Board (Cocobod) on August 20 cut its 2024/25 Ghana cocoa production estimate to 650,000 MT from a June forecast of 700,000 MT. Due to bad weather and crop disease, Ghana's 2023/24 coca harvest sank to a 23-year low of 425,000 MT. Ghana is the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, and its 2024/25 cocoa harvest begins in October.
An increase in cocoa production by Cameroon, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer, is bearish for cocoa prices. On August 21, Cameroon's National Cocoa and Coffee Board reported that in 2023/24 (Aug/July), Cameroon cocoa production rose +1.2% y/y to 266,725. Also, Nigeria's August cocoa exports rose by +6.8% y/y to 14,984 MT. Nigeria is the world's sixth-largest cocoa producer.
In a bullish factor, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) on August 30 raised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -462,000 MT from May's -439,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO also cut its 2023/24 cocoa production estimate to 4.330 MMT from May's 4.461 MMT. ICCO projected a 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio of a 46-year low of 27.4%.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
