Cock-up, rather than conspiracy, the likely cause of Cleverly’s surprise exit

James Cleverly had clear momentum, and was the bookmakers’ favourite – until he lost out in the fourth and final round of the parliamentary vote. Photograph: Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Whenever something unexpected happens in politics, two questions immediately arise: how the hell did it happen, and what does it mean? With the latest twist in the Conservative leadership race, the first of these at least presents no obvious answers.

James Cleverly would have gone to bed on Tuesday night overwhelmingly confident he would progress to the final two of the contest. He had topped the third round of voting by Tory MPs, had clear momentum, and was the bookmakers’ favourite.