One of the scenarios the Coalition doesn’t want playing out between now and a federal election that is very winnable is abortion becoming a high-profile issue. With pressure from inside the parliamentary ranks of the Coalition from Matt Canavan, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price and Barnaby Joyce, from inside Parliament from the likes of Ralph Babet, and from inside the Liberal party from figures like Tony Abbott, a US-style outbreak of culture warring over abortion — and the mythical issue favoured by opponents of women’s rights, late-term abortion — can’t be ruled out.
So Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has laid down the law, telling his joint partyroom there would be no change under a government he led, and that the debate was “done and dusted”. History — specifically Liberal party history — shows that simply isn’t true.
It’s mid-2026. The Dutton government is hoping for passage through Parliament of legislation for its signature policy to establish a nuclear power industry in every state. The Senate stands in its way: Labor, the Greens and a number of crossbenchers oppose the bill. But with billions for regional programs sweetening the deal, One Nation and Tammy Tyrrell are onside and, with an expanded Senate representation from Labor’s disastrous 2025 election performance, the Coalition only needs one vote to get its bills through.
Enter Ralph Babet, who rises to deliver a crucial speech in the Senate revealing his position: he will support the nuclear power bills in exchange for billions more in regional sweeteners for Victoria — and government support for a comprehensive package ending federal support for abortion, including in Australia’s aid programs, and regulating access to medical abortion drugs. Prime Minister Dutton, unable to believe his luck, welcomes Babet’s recognition of his mandate for nuclear power, while Liberal moderates leak their unhappiness with the deal to the Nine newspapers but vote for it anyway. The press gallery lauds Dutton’s masterly political footwork to deliver a historic reform to Australia’s energy system.
Couldn’t happen? It already has.
Abortion was a non-issue in the 1996 federal election, despite Ray Martin’s attempt to inject the issue into a televised debate between Paul Keating and John Howard — both merely stated they were personally opposed to abortion. But that counted for nothing when Tasmanian senator and anti-abortion obsessive Brian Harradine found himself with the casting vote on legislation implementing the Howard government’s signature policy and election commitment to privatise Telstra. In exchange for his support, Harradine demanded, and got, so much money in handouts for Tasmania that the Howard government literally ran out of Tasmanian projects to throw money at — and two abortion measures. One was an amendment of the Therapeutic Goods Act to ban importing or making the medical abortion drug mifepristone, which had been trialled and recommended for use in Australia, without the authorisation of the health minister.
The other was new “Family Planning Guidelines”, based on ones drawn up by US abortion opponents, banning the funding of aid programs in developing countries that provided training, education or information about abortion. By one estimate, the Harradine deal saw over 80% of Australian family planning aid cut.
The inevitable death toll from this deal, in terms of women in developing countries in our region who died as a result of not having access to abortions — or only unsafe abortions — will never be known. The ban was overturned by the Rudd government in 2009; the mifepristone ban was overturned in 2006 but the drug did not become available again in Australia until 2012.
It’s not the only time crossbenchers have launched an attack on women under Liberal governments. Less than two years after Harradine’s deal with John Howard, right-wing ex-footballer Paul Osborne introduced a bill into the ACT assembly requiring women to be forced to wait 72 hours before having abortions and to be compelled to look at “information” such as pictures of fetuses. The minority Carnell Liberal government, which depended on Osborne’s support, backed the bill, over the furious objections of independent health minister Michael Moore, and Canberran women endured the legislation until a Labor government overturned it and decriminalised abortion in 2002.
Even in a progressive jurisdiction like the ACT — and under a moderate Liberal like Kate Carnell — abortion laws can be wound back if a government is desperate enough for support. What are the chances they would survive a more right-wing, Trump-inspired government like the one that would be headed by Peter Dutton?
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