Portugal, ever since it transitioned into a multiparty democracy in the 1970s, has been seen as one of Europe’s most stable liberal democracies. But Sunday’s parliamentary election results suggest that the country cannot remain an island when far-right populist parties are on the rise elsewhere in Europe. When 99% of the ballots were counted, the centre-right Social Democratic Party and the Socialist Party won 29% each, with the former taking a narrow lead of 2,058 votes. While the Social Democrats were expected to do well, the surprise was the rapid rise of the far-right Chega party, which ran a campaign promising to “clean up Portugal”, clamp down on immigration and implement measures such as chemical castration for some sex offenders. Chega (meaning Enough), which was founded in 2019, had won 7% votes in the 2022 elections, announcing its arrival as a force to reckon with. And in Sunday’s elections, it emerged as the third largest party, with 18% votes. Chega’s head André Ventura has said the vote is a victory for the right wing (right-of-centre, far-right and conservative parties have won 52% votes among themselves) and has expressed an interest in joining coalition talks. But Social Democratic Party’s leader Luís Montenegro has ruled out any tie-up with Chega. As the Socialists have already conceded the election, he is likely to form a minority government.
The Socialist government, led by Goan-origin Prime Minister António Costa, collapsed last year amid investigations into the government’s handling of mining and hydrocarbon projects. After the police raided government offices, including the office of Mr. Costa’s Chief of Staff and the Ministries of Environment and Infrastructure, Mr. Costa, an elderly statesman of the European left, announced his resignation, saying the probe was “incompatible” with his official duties. The scandal had tarnished the Socialists, but the party that made gains out of it was the anti-establishment Chega whose rise blunted the edge the Social Democrats had had in the early stage of the campaign. Going forward, it will not be easy for Mr. Montenegro. If he sticks to his word of not aligning with Chega and forms a minority government, he will be dependent on other parties to pass legislation. Mr. Costa’s leadership during COVID-19 earned him praise and the economy grew faster than the EU average, but other structural economic problems persisted. The country is grappling with persistent low wages and higher inflation, and housing prices have doubled in less than a decade. Portugal has also seen protests over lack of access to health care. The new Prime Minister will have to address these challenges and offer a transparent corruption-free administration, while keeping the far-right, which is accused of xenophobia and racism, at bay.
