New polling data from the New York Times and Siena College reveals closely contested races in both Pennsylvania and Virginia, with no definitive leader emerging between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in either state.
The polls were conducted prior to an assassination attempt at a Trump rally in western Pennsylvania, adding a significant backdrop to the current political landscape.
In Pennsylvania, the survey indicates that Trump holds a slight lead over Biden among registered voters, with 48% supporting Trump compared to 44% for Biden. These numbers are consistent with a previous poll conducted in late April/early May. Among likely voters, the margin remains narrow, with Trump at 48% and Biden at 45%.
Meanwhile, in Virginia, Biden maintains a slight edge over Trump among registered voters, with 46% supporting Biden and 44% favoring Trump. This is a notable shift from the 2020 election results, where Biden won Virginia by a significant margin. Among likely voters in Virginia, Biden leads with 48% compared to Trump's 45%.
It is suggested that the focus should be on registered voter numbers at this stage of the campaign, although likely voter results provide valuable context for analysis.
Interestingly, Biden's approval rating is higher in Virginia (41%) than in Pennsylvania (36%). However, a significant portion of voters in both states believe that Biden is 'just too old to be an effective president,' with approximately 70% expressing this sentiment. A similar sentiment is echoed for Trump, albeit to a lesser extent.
Moreover, a majority of respondents in both states express a desire for new nominees from both major parties, with 60% in Virginia and 57% in Pennsylvania suggesting that Biden should be replaced, and 56% in Virginia and 50% in Pennsylvania advocating for Trump's replacement.
The surveys were conducted from July 9-11 among 872 registered voters in Pennsylvania and from July 9-12 among 661 registered voters in Virginia. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in Virginia and 3.7 points in Pennsylvania. Given the close margins and the error margins, both races are currently too close to call a clear leader.
