A quarter of European ski resorts will have scarce snow every other year with 2C of global heating, a comprehensive analysis has found. It calls into question whether such resorts have a future as the climate crisis intensifies.
The study took into account artificial snowmaking, without which half the resorts would have scarce snow every other year at 2C. Current action and policies mean the world is on track for 2.7C of global heating.
The researchers also examined the impact of ski tourism on the climate and found artificial snowmaking contributed just 2% of overall emissions. Tourist flights to resorts and accommodation were the main causes of emissions.
Artificial snowmaking in some resorts in the Alps, Nordic countries and Turkey could compensate for snow shortfalls as the climate heats, the study found. But snowmaking is unlikely to help in resorts in Britain and southern Europe, where it will frequently become too warm to create snow in the first place, or the snow that can be made will melt very quickly.
The $30bn (£23.8bn) European ski industry hosts 80% of the world’s resorts, with more than a million day visits a year. The most recent ski season was a poor one, with record-breaking warm winter weather closing ski slopes from Chamonix in France to Innsbruck in Austria.
Dr Samuel Morin, research scientist at Météo-France and CNRS in Toulouse and Grenoble, said: “Ski tourism is a niche issue in the face of climate change, but from the point of view of the people who live in the mountains and make a living from the industry, it is very important to really understand to what extent climate change is threatening the activity, and to take into account the impact this activity has on the climate.”
Prof Paul Peeters at Breda University in the Netherlands, who was not involved in the research, said: “The study delivers detailed input for policymakers, investors and the tourism sector, encouraging them to reconsider whether it is wise to maintain high dependency on winter tourism in certain areas.”
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, used data and models to assess snow cover at 2,234 resorts from Iceland to Turkey under 2C and 4C of warming. In the extreme case of 4C, almost three-quarters of resorts would have scarce snow every other year even with snowmaking.
Scarce snow was defined as the poorest coverage seen on average every five years between 1961 and 1990. The researchers assumed artificial snow was used to cover 50% of a resort’s ski runs, which is not unusual in resorts.
The researchers did not publish data for each resort in the study as local factors affect their viability, such as the availability of other tourist activities such as hiking trails.
Morin said that, while the energy needed to create artificial snow could result in carbon dioxide emissions, it might result in lower overall emissions if open pistes in Europe meant skiers did not fly to other continents in search of snow.
“Reaching strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for ski tourism will chiefly depend on massive reductions of the carbon footprint of transportation and accommodation,” the scientists concluded.
Increased snowmaking would increase the water demand in resorts by about 20% on average with 2C of heating, the researchers estimated, which would be challenging in some places and not in others.
In February, more than 200 professional skiers urged the sport’s governing body to take climate action by, for example, changing race schedules to prevent the athletes having to fly across the Atlantic several times during the season.
