British households’ food bills have been driven up by more than £600 over the past two years by the global climate emergency and soaring energy prices, according to a report warning of further increases to come in 2024.
Sounding the alarm over the impact from increasing extreme weather patterns for food production, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank said that global heating was directly contributing to the cost of living crisis.
According to the analysis carried out by researchers from the universities of Bournemouth, Exeter and Sheffield, more extreme or unseasonal weather accounted for one-third of all food price inflation in the UK this year.
Combined with the impact of soaring energy prices – after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drove up gas, energy and fertiliser prices – it said British households had been hit by £605 in additional food costs in 2022 and 2023. While energy prices have fallen back this year, it warned that the impact from the climate emergency was increasing.
Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU, said: “Climate change is playing havoc with global food production, and this is inevitably feeding through to higher prices at the tills. Across 2022 and 2023, the climate emergency alone added the equivalent of six weekly shops to the average household food bill.”
The cost of the climate crisis rose from £171 in 2022 to £192 in 2023, more than offsetting the effects of falling energy prices this year and having a greater impact than rising energy bills, according to analysis.
Official figures show inflation in food and drink prices peaked at an annual rate of almost 20% earlier this year, the highest level since the 1970s, amid disruption to food supplies from weather events and soaring energy costs for producers.
Food price inflation has fallen back in recent months, but remains at historical highs of close to 10%. Prices are also still near record highs after recent storms – including Storm Babet – flooded swathes of farmland, hitting UK potato and vegetable harvests in the run-up to Christmas.
In 2022, drought hit production of basic foodstuffs such as potatoes and onions in the UK, followed by an unusually wet harvest in 2023, and then the hottest September on record.
It comes after heatwaves across the Mediterranean, India and South America this year all had a major impact on food production and prices. Staples including sugar, rice and tomatoes were affected by extreme weather, such as droughts in India, while olive oil rose in price by 50% after two years of drought and heatwaves in Spain and other major exporters in southern Europe.
The situation could be worse next year with the El Niño weather system leading possibly to more severe weather and further increases in food prices.
Prof Wyn Morgan of Sheffield University, one of the report authors, said: “Given we expect climate impacts to get worse, it is likely that climate change will continue to fuel a cost of living crisis for the foreseeable future.”
Anna Taylor, executive director at the Food Foundation, said that the government needed to “think more seriously how households can become more resilient to price volatility” in the light of the likely impact of the climate crisis.
She called on the government to revive its plans for a horticulture strategy that would build production of fruit and vegetables in the UK and reduce reliance on crops grown in southern Europe which is becoming increasingly vulnerable to drought and extreme heat as a result of the climate crisis.
A separate report from the Food Foundation warned that retailers and hospitality venues in Britain were failing to create a food environment where healthy choices are affordable, readily available and appealing.
It found healthy food was already twice as expensive as unhealthy food per calorie, while the cost of sustainable alternatives to meat and dairy can also be high.
Most main meals offered by many pub chains regularly exceed 50% of the recommended daily intake for calories, saturated fat, salt and sugar, according to the report. Meanwhile, just 1% of food advertising spend goes towards fruit and vegetables compared with 9% on meat and dairy while 21.5% of buy-one-get-one-free deals are on meat and dairy compared with just 4.5% on fruit and vegetables.
Lancaster said that the dependence of the UK’s current farming system on volatile oil, gas and fertiliser prices had created a “perfect storm of extreme weather, high gas prices and global instability” to food price inflation.
He said: “The good news is that steps to make farming more sustainable cannot only cut emissions but also make our food production more resilient to the extremes of flooding and drought. Government plans in England to support greener farming with more hedgerows, improved soil health and tree planting schemes are therefore vital to our future food security.”
