Christmas Day should be warm and sunny across much of Australia according to the weather bureau’s first look at the festive forecast.
Senior meteorologist Sarah Scully, from the Bureau of Meteorology, said a band of high pressure on Christmas Day would bring generally dry and settled conditions to south-eastern Australia, mild temperatures for west and south-west Western Australia, and typically hot and stormy weather in the north.
“It doesn’t look like there’s going to be any severe weather across the country,” she said, noting that the accuracy of the forecast would improve as the day got closer. “Fingers crossed it stays like this.”
Both Sydney and Melbourne are forecast to reach a maximum of 28C, while Brisbane is tipped to reach 29C. Hotter weather is predicted in Adelaide (35C), Canberra (33C) and Darwin (35C). Perth is predicted to reach 25C, while Hobart is forecast to reach a high of 23C.
Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and New South Wales would be generally dry, she said, apart from the slight risk of a morning shower or two on the east coast of NSW, and Tasmania’s west and south coasts.
The ACT should expect a largely warm, dry and sunny Christmas.
Victoria’s forecast for 25 December looked warm, dry and settled, Scully said, but could potentially warm up if a high pressure system moved out into the Tasman earlier than expected.
Onshore winds might bring isolated showers to Queensland’s east coast, with the risk of thunderstorms in the north, but people could expect an otherwise dry and mostly sunny day.
Mild, below average temperatures were expected for west and southern WA, although “some showers may develop in the south-west during the afternoon and evening”, Scully said.
Australia’s own North Pole – located near Marble Bar in the Pilbara - would probably be hot, she said, with temperatures in the mid 40s.
It was expected to be hot to very hot across WA’s interior, north and north-west, with some possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the north. South Australia would be dry, hot and sunny.
Bureau senior meteorologist, Miriam Bradbury, said even though it looked like a hot Christmas for many areas, temperature and rainfall records were unlikely to be broken.
Northern parts of the country could expect fairly typical heat, shower and storm activity. “Wipespread heavy falls are not expected for Christmas day,” Bradbury said.
“For the Northern Territory, Christmas is likely to be a hot day, very hot across inland and southern parts of the territory, humid in the north, with a chance of showers or storms across the top end.”
Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino said that at this stage, there were no signs of extreme weather such as severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclone activity or heavy monsoon rain, unlike last Christmas.
In 2023, south-east Queensland experienced severe thunderstorm activity on 25 December, while Orange and Grenfell, in central-west NSW, experienced a white Christmas of sorts after a giant hailstorm blanketed lawns and streets.
“It looks like most capital cities will get through Christmas Day and Boxing Day without severe weather occurring at this stage,” he said.
But Domensino added a note of caution: Australia was a huge country and Christmas was still a week away.
Capital city forecasts for Wednesday 25 December
Sydney – minimum 18C, maximum 28. Cloud clearing. Light winds becoming easterly 15-25km/h during the day.
Melbourne – min 14C, max 28. Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming south to south-easterly 15-20km/h during the day.
Adelaide – min 16C, max 35. Sunny. Winds easterly 15 to 20 km/h tending north-west to north-easterly 15-25 km/h during the morning.
Hobart – min 13C, max 23. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds westerly 15-20km/h shifting south-easterly during the day.
Canberra – min 9C, max 33. Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming north to north-westerly 15-20km/h during the day.
Darwin – min 26C, max 34. Possible shower or storm. Light winds becoming west to northwesterly 15 to 20 km/h during the day.
Brisbane – min 20C, max 29. Mostly sunny. Light winds becoming east to south-easterly 15-20km/h during the morning.
Perth – min 15C, max 25. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower. Winds southerly 25-35 km/h.
