If you’re looking at the Miami Dolphins just getting into the playoffs, no matter how it happens, view the rest of the season as a race to 10 wins.
Get to 10 wins, meaning the Dolphins (8-5) win two of their last four regular-season games, and you’re probably in. It’s not guaranteed, but from where we are now, and in most realistic scenarios, the Dolphins are probably in if they win the right games, meaning beating two of the remaining three AFC East opponents.
If you want to dream bigger, and pretty much assure a spot in the playoffs (again, there are no guarantees), well, the rest of the season is a race to 11 wins.
Good luck with that.
The Dolphins have games remaining at Buffalo (10-3) on Saturday, at home against Green Bay (5-8) on Christmas, at New England (7-6) on New Year’s, and at home against the New York Jets (7-6) in the regular-season finale on Jan. 8.
The Packers game, the one you’d have to say the Dolphins are most likely to win even though they’re facing quarterback Aaron Rodgers, is the least consequential when it comes to tiebreakers because they’re an NFC team. Still, every win counts, and it could come in handy in a tiebreaker.
The good thing for the Dolphins is every remaining game is winnable.
The opposite is also true. The Dolphins could lose every remaining game.
But, for now, let’s stay with the most realistic and the most positive scenarios.
I’m thinking the Dolphins finish 10-7, splitting their last four games, and get a wild-card berth.
They’ll lose at Buffalo, beat Green Bay, lose at New England, and then defeat the Jets in a winner-take-all game at Hard Rock Stadium.
Of course, I’m the guy who predicted they’d finish 8-9 this season — so what do I know?
Here’s what I think I know at this point: If the Dolphins get to 10 wins, they’ll probably clinch a wild-card berth. But it’ll be a tough slog.
The Dolphins are on a five-game losing streak against teams that are .500 or better.
They’ll probably have to beat at least one team above .500 team down the stretch.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t been sharp the past two games.
That’ll have to change.
The defense has been carved up by two young quarterbacks — San Francisco’s Brock Purdy and the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert — the past two weeks.
If they don’t improve, they’ll suffer worse fates at the hands of two higher-quality quarterbacks the next two weeks — Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Rodgers.
So, yeah, there’s a lot of work to be done. Coach Mike McDaniel isn’t afraid of the challenge.
“This is what the National Football League is about,” he said. “It’s about giving your all and when it doesn’t work out, getting better from it, not worse. So we have to find a way to do that. I was hoping that that would be the case this past game. It wasn’t.
“I see it as an opportunity, really, because I know the only formula for the ultimate end result that everyone aspires for, the only formula is to go through that and come out the opposite end getting better from it, not worse.”
To do that, the Dolphins must reverse lots of negative trends including time of possession (they were doubled in that category against San Francisco, and nearly doubled by the Chargers) and third-down conversions.
The other thing they must do is accentuate their positive trends.
The Dolphins can still make big plays. And they’re 2-1 against AFC East opponents, and 6-3 against AFC opponents overall.
Therefore, the Dolphins could win any of their remaining games, including Saturday night at Buffalo.
They just need to find a way to get 10 wins.
