China is welcoming more than 50 leaders from across Africa as it kicks off its ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Beijing. The event aims to bolster China's influence on the continent amid increasing competition from the United States and the European Union.
Beijing announced that this week's China-Africa forum, dubbed Focac 2024, will be its most significant diplomatic event since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Leaders from South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and other nations are confirmed to attend, along with dozens of delegations.
African countries will be looking for "connectivity projects, networking infrastructure, a lot of new energy projects, solar panels and green mobility initiatives", according to Eric Olander, CEO of the China Global South Project (CGSP).
He added that this aligns with "what China refers to as its 'Small and Beautiful' initiative," the newest iteration of the expansive Belt and Road initiative. Launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping, this multi-billion-dollar infrastructure project spans the globe.
China, currently the world's second biggest economy, is Africa's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade hitting $167.8 billion (€152 billion) in the first half of this year.
Meanwhile, research from the Boston University-managed Chinese Loans to Africa Database revealed that Beijing's loans to African countries last year reached their highest level in five years. Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya were among the top borrowers.
According to researcher Yan Liang, writing for economics website IDEAs, China’s estimated cumulative lending to Africa from 2000-2022 reached $170.08 billion (€154 billion) – the equivalent of 64 percent of the World Bank’s lending and almost five times the total of African Development Bank’s sovereign loans.
However, since 2016 Beijing has gradually scaled back its involvement in Africa due to a slowdown in its domestic economy, the Covid pandemic and a shifting geopolitical landscape, while the US, EU, Japan and India have intensified efforts to expand their influence on the continent.
China has also declined to provide debt relief to struggling countries, despite the fact that certain African nations face difficulties repaying their loans, which in some cases has led to cuts in essential public services.
Olander points out that "China currently accounts for just 11 percent of Africa's debt", emphasising that Africa's debt challenges are more centred on eurobond obligations and multilateral development finance institutions, which hold the majority of the debt. He describes China as "a relatively minor player" in this context.
Still, "right now it is a high priority of the Chinese government to regain influence in Africa", according to Michael Dillon, a China watcher attached to London's King's College.
Beijing is "clearly competing with the United States and Europe, which have... existing long-term relationships with Africa", he said, adding that the increasing presence of Russia in the continent may also trigger China's eagerness to re-engage.
Belt and Road and beyond
Meanwhile, China continues working on its ambitious plans.
Currently, China's biggest Belt and Road projects in Africa is Kenya's $5 billion (€4.5 billion) Standard Gauge Railway, built with finance from Exim Bank of China. Connecting Nairobi with the port city of Mombasa, the line has cut journey times from 10 hours to four since opening in 2017.
However, a second phase that would extend the line to Uganda never materialised as both countries struggled to pay their debts. Kenya alone owes China more than $8 billion (€6.5 million).
Another significant investment is located in Djibouti, where China established its first overseas naval base in 2016 and assisted in developing the nearby Doraleh multi-purpose port.
Additional projects include Africa's longest suspension bridge, which connects Mozambique's capital, Maputo, to the suburb of Katembe. This $786 million (€711 million) project is funded 95 percent by Chinese loans.
China has also invested approximately $7.8 billion (€6 billion) in mining projects across Botswana, Zambia, Namibia and Zimbabwe.
Empty promises?
But it is not clear if Beijing will commit to more, and it remains uncertain what will come of whatever promises are made during this week's summit, as no mechanisms have been put in place that would verify if commitments are actually carried out.
"Focac risks becoming irrelevant if in the end people cannot see what actually comes out of it," according to Olander.
Under the Dakar Action Plan set out at the last summit, held in Dakar in 2021, China promised $300 billion worth of imports – but "we don't know how much, or if any of the pledges have ever happened", he says.
"Ultimately there is less enthusiasm for this Focac because a lot of constituents are not sure how all of this will translate into something that trickles down to the average person on the streets of Kampala or South Africa or any African city," he says.
The EU's $150 billion (€135 billion) "Global Gateway" and similar US plans to gain more access in Africa through massive infrastructure projects covered money that was committed before, according to Olander.
"People are understandably quite jaded about these big promises that come from these big governments," he says.
'Neo-colonialism'
Whatever the outcome, China, much like the US, is behaving like Britain, France and Belgium did in earlier centuries when they colonised Africa, according to researcher Dillon.
Beijing does what "Americans did when they first became a world power. They are trying to say that they are not behaving like a colonial power," he argues.
"China did support the anti-colonial resistance and liberation movements in Africa" during the 1960s and 1970s, he notes.
However, when Chinese companies began entering Africa in the 1980s, they often operated in ways similar to those of American, British and other European powers in the region, he said.
