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China’s top diplomat on Wednesday visited Myanmar and met with the leader of its military government as growing instability from the neighboring country’s civil war causes concern in Beijing.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit came after Myanmar's army has suffered unprecedented battlefield defeats from powerful ethnic militias, especially in the northeast along the border with China.
The visit also came a week after Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, head of Myanmar's ruling military council, alleged that foreign countries were backing the militias with arms, technologies and other assistance. He did not name them but was understood to be referring to China, which has long had close relations with ethnic militias operating along the border.
Myanmar state television MRTV said Wang told Min Aung Hlaing that China is cooperating seriously for stability and peace in Myanmar, and that it opposes the attacks by ethnic militias on army-controlled areas in northern Shan State. It said Wang and top officials exchanged views on bilateral relations, stability of the border region and cooperation in eliminating cybercrime and other illegal activities.
Chinese state media cited Wang as saying China “opposes chaos and war in Myanmar, interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs by extra-territorial forces and any attempts to drive a wedge between China and Myanmar and smear China.” It said Wang also expressed hope that that Myanmar “will effectively safeguard the safety of Chinese personnel and projects” there.
China's government has maintained good working relations with Myanmar’s ruling military, which is shunned and sanctioned by many Western nations for seizing power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021 and for major human rights violations. The takeover led to the organization of armed resistance to military rule, which has grown increasingly strong.
China is Myanmar’s biggest trading partner and has invested billions of dollars in its mines, oil and gas pipelines and other infrastructure. Along with Russia, it is a major arms supplier to Myanmar’s military.
But the army's unexpected failure to contain the resistance from militias threatens the stability essential for protecting China's interests.
Analysts who follow Myanmar believe that China’s relations with its ruling military, and Min Aung Hlaing in particular, are severely strained.
“There is a deep well of anti-Chinese sentiment in Myanmar, particularly in the military, and Min Aung Hlaing is known to harbor particularly strong anti-Chinese views.” Richard Horsey, senior adviser for Myanmar with the Crisis Group, told The Associated Press by email.
“I don’t think China really cares whether it is a military regime or some other type of government in Myanmar. The main issue with the regime, in Beijing’s view, is that it is headed by someone they distrust and dislike, and who they see as fundamentally incompetent," Horsey added.
When Min Aung Hlaing’s army held the upper hand in the conflict against pro-democracy guerrillas and their allies among the ethnic armed organizations, Beijing appeared to see the balance of power ensured enough stability to safeguard its substantial strategic and economic interests in Myanmar, its southern neighbor.
But in October, a group of powerful militia groups calling themselves the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched a joint offensive against the army in the northeast along the Chinese border. The Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army quickly captured large swaths of territory, including important border crossings with China and several major military bases.
Their victories inspired resistance forces opposed to military rule to expand their operations across the country.
Beijing brokered a cease-fire in January, but hostilities revived in June as the alliance claimed the army attacked it and pushed back, seizing more territory.
The crisis grew when the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army recently seized Lashio, about 110 kilometers (70 miles) south of the Chinese border, which hosted a strategically important military regional headquarters.
Analysts such as Priscilla Clapp, a senior advisor at the United States Institute of Peace, believe that time favors the resistance forces and that Beijing will adjust its policies as necessary in its self-interest.
“China will continue its efforts to preserve its investments and strategic interests in Myanmar with whatever combination of forces emerges successful from this conflict,” said Clapp, who led the U.S. Embassy in Myanmar in 1999-2002. “But it is too early yet to say what this will look like, except that the military will no longer be in the lead.”
