What’s new: Economists surveyed by Caixin estimated an average 5.3% growth in China’s gross domestic product in 2023 as the world’s second-largest economy gradually returns to its feet after the Covid pandemic.
Caixin’s survey of 16 domestic and foreign institutions showed that estimates of China’s 2023 growth range between 5.1% to 5.4% year-on-year, with an average rate of 5.3%. The economy expanded by 3% in 2022, as the country struggled with repeated lockdowns.
China’s economy expanded 5.2% during the first three quarters of 2023 with economists’ estimates for the last quarter growth ranging from 5.1% to 5.8%, with an average reading of 5.4%.
The faster expansion in the fourth quarter partly reflected the low comparison basis the same period in 2022, economists said. The economy expanded at a slower pace in the last quarter of 2022 compared with the third quarter due to disruptions caused by a flu outbreak and extreme weather conditions, economists said.
Chinese authorities will release official figures for 2023’s economic performance next week.
The context: China experienced a bumpy recovery in 2023 after abruptly lifting its harsh Covid restrictions.
While expectations were high for a strong bounce-back, the economy struggled to stabilize, not helped by a prolonged property crisis, tepid domestic consumption and weakening exports.
There were steady signs in the third quarter as consumption picked up and industrial production stabilized amid government measures to support growth, prompting economists to predict that China will hit its full-year GDP growth target of around 5%.
The International Monetary Fund in November revised its China 2023 growth forecast to 5.4%, up from 5%, but warned continued weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand could restrict growth to 4.6% in 2024.
Contact reporter Han Wei (weihan@caixin.com)
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