U.S. officials increasingly believe China is unlikely to invade Taiwan before 2028 despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's longstanding directive for the People's Liberation Army to be capable of taking the island by force by 2027, according to a new report.
Two current U.S. officials, a former U.S. official and another person familiar with U.S. thinking pointed to problems with China's military readiness and Beijing's interest in Taiwan's 2028 presidential election as key factors behind the assessment, according to Reuters.
Xi's sweeping anti-corruption campaign has disrupted the Chinese military, with investigations and expulsions reaching senior ranks. U.S. officials believe the campaign has contributed to delays in military preparedness, leaving China with more work to do before attempting an extraordinarily complicated amphibious invasion.
The 2027 date has sometimes been interpreted as a potential deadline for military action against the island. However, analysts have generally described it as a military readiness goal rather than a scheduled invasion date. China has never publicly confirmed that Xi issued an order to invade Taiwan in 2027, and Beijing continues to say it seeks "reunification" while refusing to rule out the use of force.
The U.S. intelligence community had already indicated that Beijing remained cautious. Its annual threat assessment in March said China did not have a plan at that point to invade Taiwan in 2027 and continued to prefer gaining control of the island without military force if possible, Reuters noted.
Taiwan's 2028 election could now become a critical factor in Beijing's calculations. Chinese officials are expected to watch whether the election produces a government more receptive to closer relations with Beijing. If President Lai Ching-te wins reelection and his Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive presidential term, U.S. officials believe the possibility of Chinese military action could increase from 2028 onward.
Lai and the DPP emphasize Taiwan's separate identity, while Beijing considers the democratically governed island part of Chinese territory. Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims and maintains that its people should determine their own future.
Taiwanese presidential office spokesperson Karen Kuo told Reuters that Taiwan would continue strengthening its defenses and cooperating with democratic partners, including the United States, to preserve the status quo and deter threats. "For the sake of its citizens' freedom, democracy, prosperity, and well-being, Taiwan will not abandon its commitment to democracy and freedom in the face of any military threat," she said.
The 2028 U.S. presidential election may also factor into Beijing's calculations, although officials interviewed by Reuters disagreed about its importance. Three sources said China could assess the election's outcome amid growing American resistance to overseas military involvement. Another official said Beijing increasingly sees Democrats and Republicans as broadly aligned on Taiwan.
President Donald Trump has played down the possibility of an invasion during his presidency and said last year that Xi had told him China would not attack Taiwan while Trump was in office. After hosting Xi in Washington last week, Trump said Taiwan had been discussed but provided few details.
The United States remains Taiwan's most important international supporter and weapons supplier despite maintaining no formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. Military readiness, however, remains central to the assessment.
