The size of China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and it is expected to keep growing, according to estimations by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
“Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the U.S. or Russia by the turn of the decade, the stockholm-based think tank said in its annual assessment released on Monday said.
The key finding in SIPRI Yearbook 2023 is that the number of operational nuclear weapons started to rise as countries’ long-term force modernisation and expansion plans progressed.
“China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal. It is increasingly difficult to square this trend with China’s declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces needed to maintain its national security,” Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said in a statement issued by SIPRI.
India’s arsenal expanding
India and Pakistan appear to be expanding their nuclear arsenal. Both countries introduced and continued to develop new types of nuclear delivery system in 2022, the assessment noted. “While Pakistan remains the main focus of India’s nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across China.”
According to SIPRI estimates, the nuclear arsenals of India grew from 160 in 2022 to 164 in 2023 and that of Pakistan from 165 to 170.
India, which has a no-first-use policy for use of nuclear weapons and has completed its nuclear triad with the fielding of two ballistic missile nuclear submarines, is in the process of upgrading its ballistic missiles. While a submarine-launched intermediate range ballistic missile is under development, a new generation ballistic missile, ‘Agni Prime’, with a range between 1,000 km-2,000 km, is close to being inducted, which will replace older Agni missiles in this range. India has also inducted Agni-5, which a range of over 5,000 km.
The nine nuclear-armed states —the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) and Israel—continue to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2022, SIPRI said.
Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12, 512 warheads in January 2023, about 9,576 were in military stockpiles for potential use — 86 more than in January 2022. Russia and the U.S. together possess almost 90% of all nuclear weapons. The sizes of their respective nuclear arsenals (useable warheads) seem to have remained relatively stable in 2022, although transparency regarding nuclear forces declined in both countries in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the statement added.
In the wake of the war in Ukraine, U.S. suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with Russia, and in February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) — the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and U.S. strategic nuclear forces. Talks about a follow-on treaty to New START, which expires in 2026, were also suspended. Nevertheless, by SIPRI’s assessment, deployed strategic nuclear forces of both countries remained within the New START limits as of January 2023, the statement added.
