Is Donald Trump China’s worst nightmare or a dream come true? He is both, but not in equal measure. In the near-term, his tariff-led approach to trade will cause problems for Beijing. However, in just a few weeks he has done more damage to the liberal international order, the cohesion of the democratic west, and the US’s global standing, than all the combined efforts to undermine them in the entirety of the cold war. This goes beyond the wildest dreams China’s leaders could have had.
The tariffs already levied are serious enough, and Beijing cannot but see them as a harbinger of more to come. Unlike during his first term, this time Trump seems prepared to deliver the threats he makes. With China’s economy already misfiring, an intensified trade war is the last thing Beijing needs, despite the bravado of its diplomats.
