In a previously undisclosed conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden in November, President Xi assured Biden that China would not interfere in the 2024 presidential election. The meeting covered a wide range of topics, including fentanyl and military communications, showcasing high-stakes discussions between the two leaders.
The subject of election interference was raised by President Biden, as it has been a top concern for U.S. national security officials since Russia's meddling in the 2016 election. Seeking assurances from China, Biden received a promise from President Xi that there would be no interference in the upcoming election. This commitment was reiterated in a subsequent conversation between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and the Chinese foreign minister over the past weekend.
This pledge from China assumes significance as U.S.-China relations have become increasingly strained in recent months due to issues such as Taiwan and fentanyl. With the next election approaching, the topic of election interference is expected to continue to be a recurring theme in their discussions.
However, questions have been raised regarding the credibility and weight of China's promise. While there is value in a direct assurance from a leader, U.S. officials are cautious due to past incidents, such as the spy balloon incident where the U.S. government accused China of backing a surveillance balloon over the country. President Biden has stated that President Xi was not even aware of that operation, highlighting the limited visibility of the Chinese leader over the security apparatus in Beijing.
Comparatively, the threat perceptions from Russia and China vary. According to declassified U.S. intelligence reports, China has shown a higher tolerance for tactics similar to those employed by Russia, such as stirring discord on social media. U.S. officials still view Russia as more unpredictable, with its cyber threats described as akin to a hurricane, while China's approach is characterized as slow and strategic, akin to climate change.
As the 2024 election approaches, U.S. officials remain concerned about cyber threats from both Russia and China. The long game pursued by China and its capabilities are well-recognized, but the threshold for risk-taking during the election season remains uncertain. Consequently, the United States will closely monitor and evaluate any potential interference from both countries.
Given the importance of safeguarding the integrity of the electoral process, ongoing vigilance and efforts to detect and counter any foreign interference will be crucial in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election.
