Ian Nepomniachtchi, 32, and Ding Liren, 30, Russia’s world No 2 and China’s world No 3, begin their €2m 14-game title match on Sunday at 10am BST in Astana, Kazakhstan. Nepomniachtchi will play under a neutral Fide flag.
While the pair push their first pawns, Magnus Carlsen, who announced several months ago that he would be abdicating after a highly successful 10-year reign, will be relaxing on his skiing holiday in Chamonix after competing in this week’s online Chessable Masters.
The Norwegian is comfortable with his decision to jettison his title and its baggage of months of hard slog preparation every alternate year. Carlsen defended the crown four times, and already has a secure place at the pinnacle of chess history, alongside or nudging ahead of Garry Kasparov and Bobby Fischer.
The 32-year-old is still ranked No 1 by a wide margin, and has a full programme of events in the next few weeks, starting with the Chessable Masters, where he was shocked by Russia’s Vladislav Artemiev in Monday’s opening round, and knocked out 2-1 on Thursday by his old rival Hikaru Nakamura after blundering his queen by a mouse slip. It was a fingerslip, such as every online chess player from novice to grandmaster has made, but in Carlsen’s case it happened to be his very final move as a reigning world champion, provoking an agonised reaction as he realised the historic significance of the moment.
Agony for Magnus and a fist-pump for Hikaru as a mouse-slip decides a huge Armageddon battle! https://t.co/Vm2mbF9N0S#ChessableMasters #ChessChamps pic.twitter.com/jXrQmeDbYE
— chess24.com (@chess24com) April 6, 2023
Carlsen is scheduled to play over-the-board in the Grand Chess Tour rapid and blitz in Warsaw in May and Zagreb in July, and in his home tournament Norway Chess at Stavanger in May-June.
Whoever wins between Nepomniachtchi and Ding will face a credibility test similar to Anatoly Karpov when Fischer resigned the Fide title in 1975. Karpov overcame it within a year or two, aided by Fischer’s complete withdrawal and his own tournament successes.
For the Astana winner, the problem will be accentuated by Kasparov’s calling the series an “amputated event … because it does not include the strongest player on the planet.” Of the 48 previous world championship matches starting with Wilhelm Steinitz v Johannes Zukertort in 1886, no more than two or three were without the then world No 1.
Friday’s opening ceremony featured the drawing of lots for colour in the first game. Nepomniachtchi got White, and made the laconic comment “White is not bad, Black is also good”. Both players are staying in the same hotel, the first time this has happened in a world championship since 2014. Their seconds have been revealed as Romania’s world No 13 Richard Rapport for Ding, and regular aide world No 25 Nikita Vitiugov for Nepomniachtchi. Significantly, Ding has not chosen a compatriot, while neither protagonist has opted for a full posse of helpers like Carlsen did.
The Russian is the slight favourite, quoted around 4-5 by online bookmakers, with Ding at corresponding odds against. This reflects Nepomniachtchi’s victories in two Candidates tournaments and his previous experience in his 2021 match against Carlsen, where he had a slight edge in the first five games before collapsing after his defeat in the marathon sixth. Negative experiences in world championships can still be useful. Both Vasily Smyslov, in 1954-57, and Boris Spassky, in 1966-69, won the title at their second attempts. In their career classical games to date, Nepomniachtchi leads Ding 3-2, with eight draws.
Ding would have been favourite on his pre-pandemic form up to 2019, as he was impeccably solid and had a run of 100 games unbeaten in 2017-18, a record up to that time but since surpassed by Carlsen’s 125. Earlier, he had taken a law degree at Peking University before breaking into the world top 10 at age 22.
However, Ding was caught up in prolonged lockdowns in his home city of Wenzhou where he lived with his parents, and that affected his results when he resumed playing. He had finished fourth without loss at the 2018 Candidates but only tied fifth in 2020-21 where he had to quarantine for two weeks before the start. He qualified again in 2022 after tournaments and matches were controversially organised for him at short notice to preserve his rating, and only reached second place in the final rounds.
Nepomniachtchi’s career also shows moments of what the commentator and former Fide champion, Alexander Khalifman, calls “mental instability in extreme situations: – if something suddenly goes wrong, both can falter and crumble”
The Russian probably has the edge in opening preparation. Before and during his Candidates victories and his match with Carlsen, he had access to the Zhores supercomputer, based in Moscow’s Skolkovo Institute of Technology, which helped him and his team evaluate opening positions and thus secure an early advantage on the board. Zhores’s main function is for scientific research into machine learning and artificial intelligence.
Nepomniachtchi is a late developer at the highest levels, attributing an improvement in mindset for changing from a gifted but inconsistent player into a true contender for the crown. He used to be the least hard-working GM in the top 20, but approaching his 30th birthday he felt he had achieved little, so adopted a more serious approach. He used to be overoptimistic, a trait he shared with Efim Bogolyubov, who twice lost world title matches to Alexander Alekhine, but claims to have also corrected that weakness.
Who will win? In their only previous 2023 appearances, Nepomniachtchi tied for first at Düsseldorf without seeming to overexert himself, while Ding struggled at Wijk aan Zee, won only one game and lost three, and finished low down the table. The overall evidence points to a Russian victory by around 7.5-5.5.
Lei Tingjie convincingly defeated Tan Zhongyi 3.5-1.5 in this week’s all-Chinese women’s Candidates final. Lei, 26, will now challenge the holder, Ju Wenjun, 32, in the Women’s World Championship match, scheduled for July in Shanghai and Chongqing. The fifth and final game was an impressive attack by Lei, highlighted by 21…Nd8! en route for g5.
3862: 1 Ra8! gxh4 2 Rg7! Kxg7 3 Be5 mate.
