It is the calm before the storm for bookmakers as the national hunt scene readies for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.
The four days are busiest of the year for bookies as hundreds of millions will change hands over events at Prestbury Park.
But many keen racing fans have been studying the form for Cheltenham since the end of last year's meeting in search of some ante-post value.
READ MORE: Three horses we fancy for Cheltenham at decent odds
It means that even before the first race goes off on Tuesday afternoon on March 14, bookmakers have accumulated big liabilities.
In other words there are certain horses they want to lose to save their bacon.
With this in mind, the Irish Mirror got in touch with some of the leading odds compilers to find out their biggest ante-post losers ahead of the festival:
Paddy Power
Paddy Power racing trader Frank Hickey has given a comprehensive lowdown on the horses they are fearing most ahead of the festival:
Our biggest loser is Embassy Gardens in the Albert Bartlett. The first price that we laid was 50/1 and most of the damage was done from 50/1 down to 33/1 prior to his impressive win at Thurles at the end of January. That was his first start at a staying trip and he now sits on top of the market at 9/2. Should Paul Townend choose to ride Embassy Gardens, he would be sure to go off near the top of the market for the all-conquering Willie Mullins, while causing us a major headache from a liability perspective!
Hewick in the Gold Cup is another significant loser. We have laid it from 40/1 down and as momentum builds behind the rags to riches story, he looks likely to prove hugely popular with punters right up to the day of the race. A dry weather forecast will massively enhance his claims and Paddy Power’s documentary on the horse, called ‘Sharkpower’ (available on the Paddy Power Youtube channel), will only increase the horse's popularity.
Flooring Porter is on the hunt for his third consecutive Paddy Power Stayer’s Hurdle win and he has been very popular with our punters, particularly prior to Christmas. He met with a set back since, but recent reports are more positive and being a horse that comes alive at Cheltenham, he is one that punters will pile into now getting a larger price than may have been anticipated earlier in the year.
Two Willie Mullins trained mares have been backed from big prices into favouritism for their respective races, Lossiemouth for the Triumph hurdle and Allegorie De Vassy in the Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase. Considering Willie’s amazing record with Mares, we are braced for punters winning these races against it in a few weeks’ time.
Lossiemouth was available at 16/1 when added to the Triumph market and punters were nearly falling over themselves to back her at that price. She is responsible for 38% of the total stakes taken on the race, which is remarkable considering that it is a race that can throw up a strong contender right up to the end of February. That market confidence was cemented with a wildly impressive Irish debut win at Fairyhouse in early December, before following up just as impressively at Leopardstown over Christmas. An unlucky loser at the Dublin Racing festival, she remains favourite for the Triumph and will be a huge player granted normal luck in running.
Allegorie De Vassey wasn’t seen out until the second half of the season but it didn’t stop punters backing her at a top price of 25/1 into a single figure price just before her chasing debut win at Limerick over Christmas. She followed up at Thurles at the end of January, despite making a near racing ending error at the first fence and she now is vying for favouritism with the other crack novice in Impervious. She is responsible for 33% of the total stakes taken on the race at this stage.
One in the handicaps that we laid at the antepost stage is Allmankind in the Grand Annual despite barely beating a rival in four starts this season, including one on the flat. That has seen his mark drop from 159 down to 144 and it was only October 2021 that he was winning the Old Roan Chase at Aintree off a mark of 160. Dan Skelton is a trainer that has had an excellent season and it would be no shock were the Grand Annual a long term plan for Allmankind, who amazingly is still only a seven year old.
Since going Non Runner Money Back in early February, our worst result is Irish Panther in the Champion Bumper. This is a perfect example of when to use the NRMB concession to your advantage when a punter, backing the horse for the Champion Bumper before his 2 nd start in bumpers, knowing that if he wins you will be sitting on a lovely price but if he loses he is unlikely to run at the festival at all. Laid from 33/1 down to 16/1 prior to his second start at Punchestown, he could only manage third and is one that looks unlikely to take up an engagement at Cheltenham, with punters getting their stakes back.
Final Orders in the Arkle is another that has proved very popular since going NRMB. He has been backed from 40/1 down to 12/1, as he is fast improving and looks a definite runner, where many outside the top three in the market may not run here.
Ladbrokes
Nicola McGeady, Head of PR at Ladbrokes, said: “This year’s festival looks one of the most competitive ones in years. Willie Mullins doesn’t dominate the opening day with five short-priced favourites in a row, so we are hoping for a right battle on day one with the punters.
However, there are five solid horses and will be the foundations of a lot of multiples and they are Gerri Colombe at 9/4 (Brown Advisory), Delta Work at 5/6 (Cross Country), Mighty Potte r at 5/4 (Turners), Shishkin at evens (Ryanair), and Lossiemouth at 6/4 (Triumph). Right now, those picks are the worst results in our book.”
Boylesports
Check out Boylesports' offers for the Cheltenham Festival here.
Tuesday
Supreme: Facile Vega had been 8/11 before suffering a shock defeat at the DRF and was eased out 2/1. Still remains one of our biggest liabilities of the week.
Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill been in sparkling form this winter and could be a superstar. Has been backed from 7/2 to 2/7 .
NH Chase: Gallard Du Mesnil - probably banker material for our customers and is involved in numerous multiple bets and will be one of our biggest losers of the week.
Wednesday
Ballymore: Hermes Allen has probably the best chance of the UK novices and the form of his Challow win looks very strong. He was 10/1 before that win and has since shortened into 3/1.
Cross Country: Delta Work another one to feature in massive multiple liabilities and we have seen the largest single stake bets at 11/10.
Thursday
Turners Chase: Mighty Potter goes from strength to strength and followed up his Fairyhouse success with a hugely impressive win at DRF. Had been 8/1 in November and is now 11/8 on the back of those two wins.
Stayers Hurdle: Blazing Khal's very impressive return at Navan has seen him promoted to the new favourite at 9/4 from 7/1 in what was one of the most open races of the week prior to that Boyne Hurdle win.
Friday
Triumph: Lossiemouth very much like stablemate Facile Vega the wind has been taken out of his wings with a shock defeat at Leopardstown. Has drifted from EVs fav to 7/4 but remains one of biggest risks across the four days given the volume of business prior to his loss.
Gold Cup: Galopin Des Champs - a big win in the Irish Gold Cup last time saw him solidify his place at 11/8 favourite and will be a huge liability for us should the aforementioned ‘bankers’ oblige as running up losses will be substantial. However, in terms of AP the unfortunate withdrawal of Allaho in the Ryanair has impacted our multiple liabilities.
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