The Chargers have a lot on the line this weekend against the Dolphins. Not only is it a key game in the AFC playoff race, but the battle between Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa is certain to burn down a good chunk of the internet regardless of the result.
Here are four reasons to be concerned Los Angeles will be on the wrong side of the narratives come Monday morning.
Speed disadvantage
With Derwin James likely out for the game with a quad injury, the Chargers will presumably be missing both him and slot corner Bryce Callahan. That leaves rookie Ja’Sir Taylor and either Alohi Gilman or JT Woods in line to start against an offense that employs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. While Michael Davis has been playing exceptionally well this season and has the speed to at least keep pace with one of them, plugging in two new starters will undoubtedly affect the communication on long-developing routes. As long as the pass protection holds up for Tagovailoa, the downfield passing game will be extra dangerous for the Dolphins.
Prompt points pace
Before losing against the 49ers last week, the Dolphins had scored 30+ points in four straight games, while the Chargers have scored 30+ just twice all season. Granted, Miami’s efforts came against teams rated 19th, 26th, 27th, and 32nd in defensive DVOA, but Los Angeles is only 23rd by the metric. The Dolphins also haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their four losses this season, while the Chargers have allowed 17 or fewer points only twice. One of those games came against the league-worst Broncos offense. In short: Miami is going to get theirs, and Los Angeles hasn’t yet proved they can go out and get theirs to match.
Hurting offensive line
While the Chargers will get Corey Linsley back from concussion protocol this week, Trey Pipkins will remain sidelined with a knee injury. Four of Los Angeles’ five starters have appeared on the injury report this week, with Linsley, Zion Johnson (shoulder), and Jamaree Salyer (knee) all likely to play. Still, the offensive line is banged up, without even mentioning that Rashawn Slater is out for the season. With Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb on the other side, the Chargers will have to fight through the pain to move the ball on offense.
Contender-pretender barometer
Miami has become a contender gatekeeper of sorts this season. In six games against current playoff teams, the Dolphins have a -53 point differential versus a +63 point differential in six games against non-playoff teams. The Chargers have toed the line between contender and pretender all season, but recent results have skewed the scales a bit further in the direction of pretender status. If Miami’s schedule is any indication, that means they should come away with the victory – probably not the same way they beat the 6-6 Patriots 20-7 in Week 1, but perhaps a result similar to the 31-27 victory over Detroit, a team with similar imbalances to Los Angeles.
