The announcement of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah is welcome news for a region torn apart by more than a year of warfare. Hopefully when implemented, the ceasefire will offer some respite for both Lebanese and Israeli civilians.
The deal came into effect at 4am local time on Wednesday. However, the previous 24–48 hours had seen a dramatic increase in violence on both sides. This is part of a well-established pattern in warfare in which fighting increases in intensity just before a ceasefire comes into force.
My research has shown that while ceasefires may be the least-worst option we have to reduce violence during wartime, they are certainly not a panacea.
