The CDC's national picture changed shape this week, and the change is in the direction of spread rather than severity. According to the agency's epidemic trend estimates, as of July 22, COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 37 states, not changing in 11, and declining in zero.
That last figure is the one that matters. For most of this year, there has been somewhere in the country where transmission was falling. Right now, by the CDC's model, there is not.
