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The Canberra Times
The Canberra Times
Jasper Lindell

Castley is a proven vote-winner. Yet some Libs think they just lost 2028 election

How fitting for the Canberra Liberals to find themselves on Halloween jumping at their own shadows.

The deposition of an incumbent opposition leader, who had signalled her willingness to stay on, revealed a nervous party still uncomfortable with itself.

Almost the minute the Canberra Liberals start building something, they knock it back down to the foundations and start bickering about the blueprint.

The most generous reading of what went down on Thursday is it was an attempt at unity within the party, a bridge between the moderate and conservative camps.

Leanne Castley, who emerged victorious, said she reached out to Jeremy Hanson, Ms Lee's original challenger, with a deal.

Mr Hanson, who had said early that he wanted to regain the leadership, will be seen as the master of political dark arts behind Ms Castley's ascension.

Despite how many times Mr Hanson stresses that Ms Castley is the boss and that he's just there to serve, he will again have significant political power within the Liberals. He is, after all, their most experienced parliamentarian and a skilled practitioner of opposition tactics.

Ms Castley - warm, popular and a proven vote winner - will be in the Liberal driver's seat. But in the ACT political rally championship, Mr Hanson will be right alongside as navigator.

Newly elected Liberal leader Leanne Castley, right, with her deputy, Jeremy Hanson, on Thursday. Picture by Karleen Minney

Health Minister Rachel Stephen-Smith noted on ABC radio that although Ms Castley was a good media performer, she was not always across the detail.

It will be an early weak point for Ms Castley in the ACT, where voters are hungry for detail and expect an opposition to sound more like a government.

By some point on Wednesday afternoon, Ms Castley decided that she had more of the skills, experience and ability needed to lead the Liberals than Ms Lee had.

This is a bold conclusion for any politician only just embarking on their second term to make. Other parties have stronger internal structures to prevent people from getting ideas such as these.

If the result of the Liberals' Thursday showdown shows us anything, it's that the party has limited patience and limited capacity to develop its leadership teams over sustained periods.

Ms Lee had acknowledged things needed to change about the way she led the party; that was true and an admirable admission. One would like to think an opposition leader afforded a full second term would learn a thing or two about the work they do.

The Liberals, it seems, don't give leaders that chance. Entertain a hypothetical for a moment, and one wonders what Mr Hanson might have done had he had another term as leader after the party's 2016 loss. Or Alistair Coe. Would 2020 or 2024 have been different?

A few despondent Liberal members sent text messages on Thursday after the result became clear. They were setting their sights on 2032. Work would start again from scratch, making a 2028 victory a tough ask indeed.

The path from opposition back into government is a long one. Shortcuts lead to side tracks. The Liberals may still need to learn they have to proceed with less haste to have more speed.

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