A new University of North Florida poll shows the state's First Lady Casey DeSantis drawing 24% support in a hypothetical Republican primary for governor — close to Rep. Byron Donalds' 28% — but her backing drops to 12% once voters are told that Donald Trump has endorsed Donalds.
The UNF Public Opinion Research Lab survey found that Trump's endorsement dramatically reshapes the race. After respondents were informed of Trump's backing, Donalds' support jumped to 47%, while DeSantis' fell by half.
"Given Trump's notoriety and high popularity among Republicans, an endorsement from him is likely to decide the race," said Dr. Sean Freeder, director of the UNF polling lab to The Miami Herald. Donalds raised more than $45 million last year.
The findings mirror internal polling released last month by longtime pollster Tony Fabrizio on behalf of the Donalds campaign, which showed Donalds leading DeSantis 68% to 10% among voters aware of Trump's endorsement.
Republican pollster Ryan Tyson said the hypothetical matchup does not reflect the current landscape. "There is no Casey DeSantis versus Byron Donalds," Tyson said. "When you educate voters about Trump's endorsement, it ends up in a lopsided ballot."
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Casey DeSantis has not announced a gubernatorial run yet. In fact, according to interviews conducted by Politico with GOP insiders, most expect she will not enter the race as neither she nor Gov. Ron DeSantis have approached donors or begun fundraising.
Still, speculation continues. "She's clearly doing something different, and something new, and that's causing a lot of discussion about if there's a secret plan in place — or if there's just a plan to make a plan," said a Florida-based GOP insider who, like many others in the story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly to Politico.
The first lady has increased her public visibility through her "Healthy Florida First" initiative, appearing on conservative media to discuss food safety and vaccines. Allies describe her as a key adviser to the governor and influential in shaping his messaging.
The filing deadline for the race is June 12.
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